***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.05.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.05.2018.-20.05.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 65 35 0 100 6.3 8.3 10.4 55.1 37.2 31.7 7.2 12.3 19.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 63 37 0 100 5.3 6.6 9.3 52.3 37.3 32.4 5.8 9.5 14.2 30 Becej 27400G00 62 38 0 100 6.4 8.1 10.2 55.6 37.6 32.7 6.9 11.9 18.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 60 40 0 100 5.2 8.0 12.0 61.3 43.0 36.4 5.3 10.3 17.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 61 39 0 100 5.2 7.1 11.0 59.6 40.2 34.8 5.3 10.3 17.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 63 37 0 100 4.9 8.4 15.9 73.2 46.4 38.0 5.4 9.3 14.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 65 35 0 100 4.2 5.8 8.7 50.8 37.7 30.9 4.8 8.8 14.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 12.5 19.9 16.1 80.8 52.5 44.0 12.5 18.9 26.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 60 40 0 100 4.9 6.7 11.4 60.9 40.8 35.8 5.0 9.1 14.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 7.4 10.8 13.8 67.2 44.3 37.7 7.8 12.5 18.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 60 40 0 100 4.0 6.3 12.8 66.8 44.0 36.6 4.0 7.9 13.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 4.9 9.0 15.2 82.2 52.8 43.4 4.7 8.3 13.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 67 33 0 100 3.7 6.8 14.0 69.5 46.3 36.6 4.3 7.6 12.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 6.4 7.8 13.7 58.1 38.2 34.6 6.2 12.1 20.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 64 36 0 100 2.5 4.3 11.8 62.6 44.6 34.9 2.6 5.3 9.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 64 36 0 100 5.3 8.6 13.1 66.4 44.3 36.0 6.0 10.2 16.1 30 Nis 06700G01 70 30 0 100 4.3 5.7 8.3 47.7 35.2 29.0 5.1 9.1 14.2 29 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 8.2 10.3 14.3 63.9 41.3 36.6 7.9 13.5 20.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 63 37 0 100 5.5 7.1 9.6 53.5 37.2 33.0 6.0 10.3 16.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 7.8 10.0 14.4 62.7 40.4 35.7 7.8 13.5 21.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 5.0 6.2 10.0 54.9 38.2 33.8 5.2 9.0 14.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 71 29 0 100 5.8 7.3 8.6 46.8 33.5 28.4 7.1 11.7 17.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 6.5 7.4 10.1 54.7 35.8 32.7 6.9 10.9 16.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 8.0 10.6 13.6 63.5 41.5 36.8 8.1 13.5 20.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 62 38 0 100 4.2 5.0 11.4 54.5 36.4 32.4 4.4 8.4 13.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 64 36 0 100 4.0 7.6 15.4 77.2 47.9 39.1 4.5 8.1 12.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 67 33 0 100 4.8 6.3 11.1 54.1 36.3 31.1 5.5 10.4 17.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 65 35 0 100 3.7 6.1 11.3 60.6 43.3 34.8 4.2 7.5 12.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 13.5 17.0 16.0 67.9 43.8 38.8 13.4 19.2 25.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 63 37 0 100 5.7 7.1 9.3 52.0 37.1 32.0 6.3 10.3 15.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------