***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.05.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.05.2018.-27.05.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 13.5 13.4 15.0 91.8 59.2 47.9 5.9 10.4 16.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 5.1 11.1 14.2 97.3 61.5 47.9 4.8 8.1 12.5 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 6.3 14.1 15.9 99.6 61.8 47.8 5.9 10.1 15.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 17.1 22.0 19.9 115.4 68.1 52.9 8.4 13.9 20.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 8.7 20.6 18.8 113.5 67.5 50.8 8.5 13.4 19.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 11.3 13.1 21.5 104.2 63.0 52.8 4.2 8.2 14.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 4.2 10.5 13.7 92.8 59.8 46.1 4.1 7.7 12.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 22.2 26.4 20.0 108.8 65.5 54.9 11.4 18.1 26.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 12.9 16.0 18.9 110.2 66.1 51.5 5.4 9.8 15.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 17.1 19.5 20.9 106.5 64.5 52.2 8.3 13.6 20.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 6.0 14.9 17.2 111.7 66.8 51.4 5.7 9.5 14.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 12.9 15.4 17.1 107.2 64.9 53.0 5.2 9.8 15.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 11.5 14.2 20.1 110.1 66.0 52.0 4.7 8.8 14.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 7.2 16.4 23.1 105.8 64.5 49.6 7.0 11.3 17.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 13.6 17.0 17.0 111.4 67.1 52.7 5.6 10.3 16.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 11.1 14.0 18.4 111.3 66.7 51.6 4.8 8.5 13.7 30 Nis 06700G01 61 39 0 100 3.7 9.2 12.9 91.5 59.1 43.9 3.9 7.1 11.2 29 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 14.5 17.0 24.4 109.0 65.3 51.4 6.3 11.1 17.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 6.2 14.1 14.7 98.6 62.0 48.2 5.7 10.1 15.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 13.8 16.7 23.3 111.5 66.4 54.7 7.0 11.2 16.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 11.6 13.4 17.0 104.3 64.4 50.1 4.8 8.7 14.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 4.3 12.4 15.0 105.9 64.7 48.2 4.2 7.9 12.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 4.3 10.1 15.2 96.1 60.8 46.3 4.1 7.3 11.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 5.6 15.3 21.8 108.9 65.4 50.1 5.2 9.6 15.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 13.0 13.3 16.8 92.9 59.4 48.6 5.3 9.9 16.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 13.0 16.2 17.9 110.1 66.2 54.2 6.1 10.4 16.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 12.9 12.6 15.8 89.7 58.0 47.6 5.4 9.8 16.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 12.3 16.0 19.1 116.0 68.4 53.0 5.4 9.6 15.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 19.8 24.3 25.2 114.9 67.4 53.6 9.9 15.9 23.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 11.4 12.4 14.7 98.5 62.0 48.4 4.6 8.5 13.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------