***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.05.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.05.2018.-03.06.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 70 30 0 100 36.5 43.8 50.6 75.6 35.7 33.9 41.8 55.1 69.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 69 31 0 100 29.6 36.1 45.4 74.7 36.1 35.5 33.9 45.9 59.3 30 Becej 27400G00 64 36 0 100 36.8 46.6 52.7 81.6 40.6 37.2 40.7 54.6 70.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 54.1 70.4 66.1 92.6 50.6 46.1 55.5 70.0 85.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 43.7 58.5 62.9 92.4 49.9 44.5 45.2 58.5 73.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 63.5 62.7 82.7 101.6 57.3 52.7 46.9 57.7 69.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 66 34 0 100 26.8 31.5 43.9 71.9 34.4 34.4 30.4 43.6 59.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 101.7 104.1 81.0 104.4 59.7 52.9 77.1 94.0 111.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 38.6 50.2 63.7 90.4 48.0 42.7 40.7 51.4 62.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 49.7 65.8 78.0 96.3 52.9 46.9 50.8 63.7 77.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 39.9 52.0 64.6 96.1 53.1 46.8 40.8 50.2 60.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 56.1 55.9 68.6 101.0 57.4 51.2 37.6 49.8 63.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 36.9 51.2 74.7 100.1 56.8 50.9 37.2 47.1 57.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 66 34 0 100 49.4 62.5 71.1 83.8 41.4 38.4 54.8 71.0 88.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 37.8 50.2 59.1 92.5 51.9 47.1 39.2 49.0 59.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 41.5 53.9 67.6 97.2 54.4 48.4 42.6 51.6 61.1 30 Nis 06700G01 71 29 0 100 26.6 30.4 41.5 69.1 31.5 31.7 31.6 45.3 61.0 29 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 56.2 70.7 85.1 96.2 52.4 46.3 58.2 69.2 80.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 66 34 0 100 36.7 45.7 47.6 77.3 38.4 36.7 41.0 55.6 72.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 68.8 72.7 92.4 107.5 62.1 54.0 50.4 62.7 76.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 64 36 0 100 38.8 47.8 56.2 84.1 42.7 38.9 41.9 52.4 63.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 66 34 0 100 33.0 41.1 46.2 75.2 37.2 35.6 37.5 52.9 70.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 68 32 0 100 32.8 40.6 50.1 78.0 38.7 36.2 37.1 48.4 61.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 61 39 0 100 50.2 64.1 70.5 89.4 46.8 42.0 53.5 66.4 80.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 67 33 0 100 37.9 45.6 58.2 77.5 37.4 36.4 42.3 55.3 69.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 52.2 54.5 73.2 105.5 60.8 54.4 34.6 46.2 59.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 71 29 0 100 34.8 42.3 54.8 75.4 35.6 34.5 40.2 53.8 69.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 41.5 52.7 65.7 95.7 53.8 48.7 42.1 50.7 59.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 69.3 90.6 89.2 101.2 56.7 49.4 72.1 85.2 98.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 65 35 0 100 33.3 40.8 47.8 77.4 38.5 36.7 37.1 49.5 63.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------