***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.05.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.05.2017.-14.05.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 63 37 0 100 8.9 9.0 9.9 -1.3 27.6 29.6 9.4 10.5 11.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 78 22 0 100 8.9 8.9 9.5 -1.6 22.8 25.2 9.7 10.7 11.8 30 Becej 27400G00 73 27 0 100 10.5 10.5 9.9 -1.5 23.1 25.6 11.2 12.3 13.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 75 25 0 100 5.7 5.5 7.1 -1.7 20.7 23.6 6.4 7.5 8.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 71 29 0 100 7.3 7.4 8.1 -1.4 24.2 26.7 7.9 8.9 9.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 70 30 0 100 6.6 6.5 5.4 -1.4 23.3 26.2 7.1 7.9 8.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 79 21 0 100 8.8 8.9 9.4 -1.6 23.0 25.2 9.6 10.7 11.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 71 29 0 100 1.5 1.5 5.4 -1.3 24.6 27.2 2.0 2.9 3.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 80 20 0 100 8.1 8.1 8.0 -1.6 20.7 23.1 8.9 9.8 10.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 78 22 0 100 8.1 8.1 6.3 -1.5 21.8 24.7 8.8 9.6 10.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 77 23 0 100 7.9 7.9 7.5 -1.5 21.9 24.6 8.5 9.4 10.2 29 Krusevac 38200G21 68 32 0 100 6.5 6.5 6.4 -1.2 26.3 28.8 6.9 7.7 8.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 68 32 0 100 7.8 7.8 6.6 -1.3 24.7 27.9 8.2 9.0 9.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 78 22 0 100 8.8 8.8 7.8 -1.5 21.6 24.4 9.5 10.4 11.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 77 23 0 100 9.2 9.2 8.6 -1.4 22.2 24.8 9.8 10.7 11.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 70 30 0 100 8.7 8.7 7.1 -1.3 24.6 27.5 9.2 10.1 11.0 30 Nis 06700G01 78 22 0 100 9.4 9.4 9.2 -1.7 22.0 24.5 10.1 11.0 11.8 30 Palic 37000G16 77 23 0 100 6.6 6.5 5.8 -1.5 21.8 24.7 7.2 8.0 8.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 79 21 0 100 9.0 9.0 9.4 -1.7 21.4 23.9 9.7 10.7 11.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 60 40 0 100 3.4 3.4 4.2 -1.2 27.1 29.9 3.7 4.5 5.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 77 23 0 100 8.1 8.1 9.3 -1.5 22.4 25.1 8.8 9.7 10.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 81 19 0 100 8.5 8.4 9.3 -1.7 20.0 22.7 9.3 10.2 11.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 84 16 0 100 8.5 8.4 9.2 -1.8 19.2 21.8 9.4 10.3 11.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 79 21 0 100 8.3 8.2 7.8 -1.6 20.8 23.5 9.0 9.9 10.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 62 38 0 100 8.6 8.6 9.0 -1.4 26.6 28.9 9.0 10.0 11.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 7.8 7.8 6.0 -1.0 30.3 33.1 8.0 8.8 9.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 9.2 9.2 9.6 -1.3 29.2 31.2 9.5 10.7 11.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 76 24 0 100 7.4 7.3 7.6 -1.5 22.0 25.0 8.0 8.8 9.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 74 26 0 100 5.6 5.4 4.9 -1.6 21.0 24.1 6.2 7.2 8.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 77 23 0 100 8.9 9.0 9.7 -1.6 22.9 25.2 9.7 10.7 11.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------