***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.05.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.05.2017.-21.05.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 37 63 100 13.0 13.0 13.7 1.1 69.3 65.4 10.9 11.9 12.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 37 63 100 13.0 12.9 13.3 1.0 68.3 64.4 10.9 11.9 12.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 38 62 100 14.6 14.8 13.7 1.2 70.8 66.4 12.4 13.5 14.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 34 66 100 10.1 10.3 11.2 1.3 72.7 67.3 7.3 8.6 9.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 33 67 100 11.6 11.9 11.7 1.3 74.2 69.1 9.6 10.5 11.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 28 72 100 10.2 10.9 9.8 1.8 82.9 75.6 8.4 9.2 9.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 36 64 100 13.1 13.0 13.3 1.0 67.5 64.0 10.9 11.9 12.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 27 73 100 5.5 5.9 9.2 1.4 76.7 71.1 3.1 4.1 5.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 28 72 100 12.4 12.7 11.9 1.4 76.2 71.0 10.5 11.3 12.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 28 72 100 12.2 12.5 10.2 1.4 76.8 71.2 10.4 11.2 12.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 28 72 100 12.1 12.5 11.1 1.4 77.4 71.6 10.2 11.1 11.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 27 73 100 10.1 10.5 10.2 1.5 78.2 72.3 8.3 9.1 9.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 24 76 100 11.6 12.2 10.3 1.7 81.2 74.8 9.7 10.6 11.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 31 69 100 12.9 13.1 11.5 1.2 74.2 69.0 10.9 11.8 12.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 36 64 100 12.9 13.2 12.5 1.3 75.0 69.1 11.2 12.0 12.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 28 72 100 12.7 13.3 10.8 1.6 79.4 72.9 10.6 11.5 12.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 36 64 100 13.3 13.2 13.0 1.0 68.4 64.5 11.2 12.2 13.1 29 Palic 37000G16 0 24 76 100 10.6 10.9 9.7 1.5 78.6 72.5 8.7 9.5 10.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 37 63 100 13.1 13.1 13.3 1.1 69.5 65.3 11.0 12.0 12.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 26 74 100 6.6 7.1 7.9 1.7 80.8 74.4 4.9 5.6 6.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 33 67 100 12.4 12.6 13.0 1.2 73.0 68.2 10.4 11.3 12.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 41 59 100 12.3 12.2 12.9 0.9 66.4 63.1 10.4 11.3 12.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 34 66 100 12.5 12.7 13.2 1.2 72.2 67.3 10.6 11.5 12.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 28 72 100 12.3 12.6 11.6 1.3 76.2 70.7 10.4 11.2 12.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 37 63 100 12.7 12.7 12.6 1.1 67.7 64.1 10.8 11.7 12.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 22 78 100 11.3 12.1 10.1 2.1 85.4 78.0 9.4 10.2 10.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 38 62 100 13.5 13.5 13.2 1.1 68.8 65.0 10.8 12.1 13.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 34 66 100 10.9 11.3 11.7 1.4 76.5 70.3 9.3 10.0 10.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 26 74 100 9.7 10.1 8.9 1.4 77.9 72.2 7.2 8.3 9.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 39 61 100 13.2 13.2 13.5 1.0 67.7 64.0 11.0 12.1 13.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------