***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.05.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.05.2017.-04.06.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 12.7 12.8 14.2 0.4 57.8 55.6 11.6 12.4 13.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 12.8 13.0 14.2 0.5 59.4 56.6 11.4 12.4 13.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 14.4 14.5 14.2 0.4 57.5 55.5 13.2 14.1 15.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 9.3 9.4 11.7 0.5 59.0 57.0 8.0 8.9 9.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 11.3 11.2 11.6 0.3 55.6 54.6 10.1 10.9 11.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 10.1 10.1 9.7 0.3 56.9 54.7 9.3 9.9 10.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 12.9 13.1 14.2 0.5 59.1 56.3 11.7 12.6 13.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 5.0 4.8 9.3 0.1 53.0 52.6 3.8 4.6 5.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 12.3 12.2 11.8 0.2 54.5 53.5 11.3 12.0 12.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 12.2 12.1 10.2 0.2 53.2 52.6 11.3 12.0 12.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 11.9 11.8 10.9 0.2 55.2 54.6 10.9 11.6 12.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 10.2 10.1 10.0 0.2 53.6 53.5 9.2 9.9 10.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 11.5 11.3 9.7 0.1 52.4 52.3 10.5 11.2 11.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 13.0 12.9 11.8 0.2 55.0 54.1 11.9 12.7 13.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 13.3 13.5 13.1 0.6 62.1 58.7 12.3 13.0 13.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 12.3 12.2 10.5 0.3 55.5 54.7 11.2 12.0 12.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 13.1 13.2 14.0 0.5 59.4 56.4 11.9 12.8 13.6 29 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 10.9 10.7 9.4 0.1 52.9 52.4 9.8 10.6 11.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 12.8 13.0 14.1 0.5 59.6 56.9 11.7 12.5 13.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 6.9 6.6 7.3 0.1 52.0 51.5 5.8 6.6 7.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 12.3 12.3 13.2 0.3 55.4 54.0 11.3 12.0 12.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 12.4 12.5 13.8 0.5 58.8 56.2 11.3 12.1 12.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 12.4 12.6 13.9 0.5 59.4 56.9 11.1 12.1 13.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 12.4 12.3 11.5 0.2 54.5 53.6 11.3 12.1 12.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 12.5 12.5 12.7 0.4 57.0 55.2 11.3 12.1 13.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 11.0 11.0 9.6 0.4 57.9 55.9 10.0 10.7 11.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 12.6 12.8 13.5 0.5 58.4 55.9 11.1 12.2 13.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 11.2 11.3 12.1 0.5 60.1 57.4 10.2 10.9 11.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 9.3 9.1 8.8 0.1 52.9 52.2 8.0 9.0 9.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 13.0 13.1 14.2 0.5 58.3 55.9 11.7 12.7 13.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------