***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.05.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.05.2017.-14.05.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 63 37 0 100 20.9 20.6 19.7 -1.9 23.7 26.8 21.5 23.0 24.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 70 30 0 100 20.6 20.6 19.7 -2.0 24.2 26.8 21.5 23.0 24.4 30 Becej 27400G00 62 38 0 100 21.0 21.0 20.0 -1.7 26.6 29.3 21.6 23.1 24.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 14.3 14.2 16.8 -1.5 28.2 31.2 14.6 15.9 17.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 21.5 21.5 18.3 -1.5 29.3 31.7 21.9 23.3 24.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 22.3 21.0 16.4 -0.7 40.1 41.6 20.4 21.8 23.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 75 25 0 100 20.1 19.9 19.3 -2.2 21.8 24.5 21.1 22.5 23.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 11.5 9.9 16.6 -1.0 36.5 38.1 9.6 11.0 12.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 20.8 21.0 19.4 -1.3 31.5 33.8 21.1 22.5 23.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 23.0 21.3 17.7 -1.1 35.5 37.4 21.1 22.4 23.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 23.3 21.3 18.8 -1.2 33.3 35.4 21.3 22.7 24.0 29 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 22.5 20.9 17.5 -1.0 36.0 37.6 20.7 22.0 23.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 23.5 21.7 18.2 -1.1 34.6 36.4 21.5 22.9 24.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 21.3 21.4 19.3 -1.3 31.3 33.8 21.5 22.9 24.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 21.5 21.6 19.4 -1.4 30.2 32.7 21.9 23.2 24.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 24.1 22.1 18.1 -1.2 32.9 34.9 22.1 23.5 24.8 30 Nis 06700G01 70 30 0 100 19.9 19.9 19.3 -2.0 24.4 26.9 20.7 22.1 23.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 22.6 20.8 16.9 -1.1 34.9 36.9 20.7 22.0 23.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 63 37 0 100 20.5 20.5 19.9 -1.7 26.6 29.1 21.1 22.5 23.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 17.7 16.1 14.8 -1.0 35.4 37.0 15.9 17.2 18.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 21.0 20.9 19.9 -1.6 27.6 30.3 21.4 22.8 24.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 66 34 0 100 20.6 20.6 19.5 -1.8 25.4 27.7 21.3 22.8 24.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 21.2 21.3 20.2 -1.4 30.6 33.0 21.5 22.9 24.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 20.8 21.0 19.1 -1.3 32.4 34.7 21.0 22.4 23.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 65 35 0 100 20.9 20.6 18.5 -2.0 23.0 26.1 21.5 22.8 24.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 22.8 21.6 16.8 -0.6 40.9 42.1 20.9 22.3 23.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 70 30 0 100 20.4 20.2 18.9 -2.1 21.9 25.0 21.2 22.6 23.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 21.6 21.8 18.1 -1.2 32.4 35.0 21.9 23.2 24.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 17.7 15.9 16.1 -1.2 34.0 35.9 15.8 17.1 18.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 69 31 0 100 20.4 20.3 19.7 -2.0 23.5 26.2 21.2 22.7 24.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------