***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.05.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.05.2017.-28.05.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 22.3 23.7 22.5 -0.4 44.6 44.9 22.7 24.1 25.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 23.1 24.4 22.7 -0.1 49.2 48.0 23.3 24.5 25.7 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 22.9 24.1 22.7 -0.4 45.2 45.2 23.2 24.4 25.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 15.0 16.5 20.4 -0.4 44.1 44.9 15.5 17.0 18.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 61 39 0 100 22.5 23.9 20.7 -0.6 42.5 43.4 23.1 24.5 25.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 62 38 0 100 20.9 22.3 18.6 -0.5 43.2 44.6 21.4 22.8 24.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 22.5 23.9 22.7 -0.1 48.6 47.7 22.7 24.0 25.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 60 40 0 100 10.4 11.8 19.1 -0.5 43.8 44.1 10.9 12.4 13.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 22.1 23.3 21.0 -0.6 42.8 43.5 22.5 23.9 25.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 22.1 23.3 19.8 -0.5 43.3 43.7 22.5 23.8 25.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 61 39 0 100 22.2 23.6 20.5 -0.5 43.6 44.1 22.8 24.1 25.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 62 38 0 100 21.2 22.6 20.1 -0.4 44.7 44.9 21.7 23.0 24.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 63 37 0 100 22.2 23.6 19.3 -0.5 43.6 44.5 22.7 24.1 25.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 22.8 23.9 20.7 -0.5 44.0 44.2 23.0 24.3 25.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 23.0 24.5 21.6 -0.1 48.5 48.4 23.3 24.6 25.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 63 37 0 100 22.7 24.2 20.1 -0.5 43.9 44.6 23.3 24.7 26.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 24.4 23.8 22.6 0.0 49.7 48.4 22.6 23.9 25.1 29 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 21.7 22.9 19.2 -0.5 43.2 43.4 22.1 23.4 24.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 22.5 24.0 22.7 -0.1 49.2 48.1 22.8 24.0 25.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 59 41 0 100 16.5 17.9 16.8 -0.5 43.2 43.5 17.0 18.5 19.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 22.4 23.5 21.8 -0.6 41.9 42.9 22.8 24.1 25.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 22.8 24.4 22.4 0.0 49.5 48.2 23.1 24.4 25.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 23.0 24.3 22.6 -0.1 48.3 47.5 23.2 24.5 25.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 22.2 23.3 20.7 -0.5 43.9 44.1 22.5 23.8 25.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 22.4 23.6 20.8 -0.5 42.6 43.6 22.8 24.2 25.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 21.8 23.6 20.0 0.2 53.2 51.6 22.1 23.4 24.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 22.2 23.5 21.7 -0.4 44.6 44.9 22.6 23.9 25.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 22.8 24.3 20.7 -0.4 45.2 45.8 23.3 24.6 25.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 16.7 17.9 18.3 -0.6 42.5 42.9 17.1 18.5 19.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 22.6 24.1 22.6 -0.2 47.4 46.8 23.0 24.3 25.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------