***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.05.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.05.2017.-04.06.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 22.5 23.5 22.5 -0.1 47.4 47.2 22.7 23.6 24.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 24.3 23.9 22.6 0.0 49.6 48.5 23.0 24.0 24.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 24.3 23.9 22.8 -0.1 48.9 48.2 23.0 23.9 24.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 17.0 16.8 20.2 0.1 52.6 51.0 15.7 16.6 17.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 23.0 24.2 21.1 0.1 51.3 50.1 23.2 24.1 25.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 22.9 23.0 19.1 0.4 59.3 55.7 21.7 22.5 23.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 23.9 23.4 22.5 -0.1 47.7 47.1 22.6 23.6 24.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 12.4 12.3 19.4 0.3 56.9 54.0 11.1 12.0 12.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 22.4 23.7 21.6 0.1 52.9 51.2 22.6 23.5 24.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 23.8 23.7 20.2 0.3 55.4 52.9 22.5 23.4 24.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 22.6 23.9 21.2 0.2 55.1 52.9 22.8 23.7 24.5 29 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 21.8 23.1 20.4 0.4 58.4 55.3 21.9 22.8 23.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 24.2 24.1 20.3 0.3 56.4 53.9 23.0 23.8 24.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 22.7 23.8 21.2 0.0 49.3 48.3 22.9 23.8 24.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 24.6 24.6 22.0 0.4 57.7 54.5 23.5 24.3 25.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 23.3 24.7 20.7 0.3 56.1 53.7 23.5 24.4 25.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 23.7 23.3 22.4 0.0 49.6 48.6 22.3 23.3 24.2 29 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 22.0 23.2 19.6 0.2 54.3 52.0 22.1 22.9 23.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 23.8 23.5 22.7 0.1 51.3 49.8 22.6 23.5 24.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 18.5 18.4 17.3 0.2 54.7 52.6 17.2 18.2 19.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 22.6 23.7 22.3 -0.1 48.4 47.9 22.8 23.7 24.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 24.3 23.8 22.2 -0.1 48.9 47.9 22.9 23.8 24.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 24.2 24.1 22.8 0.2 53.7 51.7 23.0 23.9 24.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 22.3 23.4 21.3 0.1 51.9 50.3 22.4 23.3 24.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 22.7 23.6 21.0 -0.2 45.2 45.6 22.9 23.8 24.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 40 60 100 24.1 24.2 20.2 1.0 70.8 64.5 22.4 23.2 24.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 22.5 23.4 21.8 -0.2 46.1 46.2 22.7 23.6 24.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 24.6 24.6 21.0 0.3 56.8 53.9 23.4 24.3 25.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 17.0 18.2 18.7 0.1 52.6 50.8 17.2 18.1 18.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 24.1 23.6 22.6 -0.1 47.8 47.3 22.8 23.8 24.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------