***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.05.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.05.2017.-14.05.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 3.9 5.0 8.9 58.2 39.9 35.9 3.5 7.5 13.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 3.2 4.1 7.2 54.9 39.8 35.2 3.1 5.9 9.7 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 4.2 5.0 7.6 52.9 38.8 34.6 4.0 7.5 12.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 63 37 0 100 5.1 4.5 7.9 44.8 29.2 27.7 5.4 10.2 16.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 4.6 5.4 9.4 59.1 38.8 35.5 4.2 8.2 13.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 60 40 0 100 5.1 5.5 10.6 54.0 33.2 31.6 5.3 9.6 15.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 3.5 5.1 8.2 61.0 44.9 39.6 3.2 5.9 9.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 9.5 11.8 13.4 64.6 39.1 35.4 10.0 15.5 22.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 4.5 4.6 8.3 50.9 34.1 31.4 4.4 8.2 13.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 5.7 6.4 12.0 57.2 36.0 32.9 5.7 10.4 16.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 5.1 5.9 9.3 55.9 37.1 33.7 5.2 8.4 12.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 60 40 0 100 4.3 5.8 11.0 64.0 40.4 36.4 4.5 7.8 12.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 7.2 4.6 11.9 68.2 44.7 41.7 2.9 5.4 8.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 71 29 0 100 3.4 4.2 9.3 49.2 33.0 29.6 4.2 8.2 13.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 72 28 0 100 3.1 3.2 5.4 37.7 28.7 25.5 4.0 7.4 12.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 4.3 5.2 10.1 61.0 39.6 36.5 4.3 6.9 10.1 30 Nis 06700G01 60 40 0 100 3.7 5.3 7.4 56.9 41.2 35.7 3.8 7.3 12.4 30 Palic 37000G16 66 34 0 100 5.6 6.8 12.7 57.3 34.2 31.4 6.3 11.4 18.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 63 37 0 100 4.6 5.7 6.8 51.0 36.6 32.5 4.9 9.3 15.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 5.1 7.0 15.8 72.1 42.7 38.8 4.9 9.0 14.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 10.7 5.3 8.4 56.2 39.2 36.0 4.1 7.9 13.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 67 33 0 100 3.7 4.8 6.3 48.6 36.3 31.3 4.2 7.2 10.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 70 30 0 100 3.9 4.8 6.7 47.5 33.4 29.9 4.8 8.0 12.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 72 28 0 100 4.8 6.3 9.3 50.8 33.6 30.1 6.0 10.9 17.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 12.5 7.9 10.5 65.7 45.1 41.3 5.0 9.3 15.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 2.5 3.4 10.9 65.0 40.6 36.9 2.4 5.0 8.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 5.1 6.7 9.6 60.7 41.5 37.9 4.6 9.2 15.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 66 34 0 100 3.7 3.5 7.5 43.3 29.2 27.1 4.2 7.8 12.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 63 37 0 100 6.7 8.5 13.6 62.6 37.1 33.9 7.4 13.1 21.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 3.3 4.1 7.2 52.7 38.9 35.1 3.1 6.4 11.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------