***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.05.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.05.2017.-21.05.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 17.4 21.5 19.3 113.5 66.9 57.0 7.8 13.5 21.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 12.7 15.2 16.5 108.6 65.1 54.1 5.1 9.6 15.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 16.9 18.3 17.4 101.0 61.6 52.5 7.7 13.2 20.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 6.7 15.4 16.6 94.1 58.5 48.7 6.7 12.0 19.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 5.9 14.9 16.6 91.5 57.1 44.8 5.8 11.5 20.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 63 37 0 100 6.1 9.9 15.8 72.7 44.9 38.4 6.7 11.4 17.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 12.5 13.8 16.2 101.5 62.4 51.5 4.7 9.2 15.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 11.9 18.4 14.3 75.1 48.5 40.5 12.1 19.0 27.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 6.5 13.6 17.0 92.7 57.8 47.1 6.5 11.0 16.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 7.6 13.5 16.0 81.6 51.8 42.6 7.4 12.7 19.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 5.2 11.6 17.1 90.2 56.4 47.3 4.8 9.4 15.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 6.0 10.7 14.3 80.9 52.1 43.8 5.9 10.0 15.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 58 42 0 100 5.3 8.8 14.8 75.4 48.2 39.7 5.4 9.3 14.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 17.7 16.2 19.3 92.3 57.0 48.3 6.5 12.9 21.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 8.2 8.4 16.1 95.9 59.8 49.6 2.8 5.9 10.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 7.0 12.0 14.7 79.2 50.4 41.8 6.9 11.9 18.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 12.2 14.5 16.4 104.7 63.9 51.7 4.8 9.3 15.5 29 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 6.9 12.6 16.4 78.7 50.7 41.3 7.1 12.3 19.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 16.3 19.3 16.6 109.1 65.2 54.9 7.3 12.6 19.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 8.4 12.5 15.9 73.9 46.6 40.3 8.3 13.5 20.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 14.0 15.3 17.7 99.4 61.3 51.4 5.9 10.8 17.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 6.6 16.7 16.4 102.2 63.0 49.9 6.1 11.4 18.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 14.7 15.8 16.1 98.9 60.9 52.5 6.7 11.7 18.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 8.2 15.8 17.2 88.1 55.9 46.2 7.8 13.4 20.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 17.2 15.2 17.8 89.1 55.1 46.9 7.6 13.3 20.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 61 39 0 100 4.9 6.4 12.0 62.0 38.8 33.7 5.0 9.5 15.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 15.6 18.2 20.0 107.2 63.8 54.5 7.0 12.3 19.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 5.6 11.1 15.1 89.2 56.7 46.7 5.5 9.3 14.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 11.4 16.7 16.3 74.6 46.8 39.5 11.9 18.0 25.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 15.9 18.9 16.8 108.2 64.6 54.2 7.3 12.6 19.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------