***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.05.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.05.2017.-28.05.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 5.4 14.3 23.8 124.0 70.9 54.7 5.4 8.6 12.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 5.0 12.5 18.4 99.3 62.6 47.8 4.8 8.7 13.9 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 4.7 14.3 21.9 115.1 68.2 53.0 4.3 8.1 13.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 15.5 20.8 25.6 122.4 70.4 55.6 7.2 12.1 18.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 13.9 18.0 24.8 121.7 70.3 54.6 7.4 11.5 16.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 12.4 14.9 25.9 108.7 64.8 54.9 4.8 9.2 15.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 5.0 12.4 17.8 99.3 62.8 47.9 4.6 8.4 13.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 11.6 26.1 23.8 106.4 64.3 52.7 11.2 18.3 27.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 10.8 15.2 26.3 125.5 71.3 55.5 4.5 8.1 13.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 8.0 19.2 27.0 114.5 67.4 53.8 7.6 12.4 18.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 11.8 14.7 22.4 116.7 68.6 54.4 6.2 9.7 13.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 12.7 15.7 21.4 111.4 66.5 54.3 5.4 9.7 15.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 12.1 16.2 24.8 116.1 68.0 55.5 4.8 9.2 15.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 15.9 17.2 25.9 98.9 61.9 50.4 7.1 12.4 19.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 12.8 17.1 22.5 117.1 69.2 55.6 5.5 9.8 15.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 11.1 15.0 24.0 121.0 69.9 55.8 4.8 8.5 13.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 8.2 9.3 17.8 101.0 63.2 48.5 3.0 5.9 10.0 29 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 13.4 17.0 28.7 112.5 66.6 54.8 5.5 10.2 16.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 5.5 13.1 19.4 101.4 63.4 48.7 5.3 9.1 14.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 13.9 17.1 27.6 109.5 65.2 55.7 6.7 11.3 17.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 9.3 13.1 25.5 130.3 72.8 55.8 4.8 7.6 11.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 5.5 14.1 18.4 97.7 61.6 47.3 5.1 9.7 16.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 3.7 9.9 20.9 105.5 65.0 50.3 3.6 6.4 10.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 13.2 15.8 25.3 109.4 65.7 52.4 5.9 10.2 15.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 8.7 12.1 27.5 128.4 72.2 55.5 4.2 6.9 10.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 12.6 14.3 20.5 102.6 63.1 52.1 5.6 9.8 15.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 5.7 15.0 25.6 124.7 71.1 55.1 5.5 8.9 13.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 11.7 15.5 24.0 119.2 69.5 55.6 5.4 9.2 14.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 20.9 25.8 28.6 110.8 65.8 55.5 9.9 16.8 26.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 4.5 11.4 19.2 103.6 64.3 49.1 4.1 7.5 12.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------