***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.05.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.05.2017.-04.06.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 62 38 0 100 7.5 19.1 17.1 97.6 62.3 46.9 8.2 13.7 21.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 6.9 18.4 15.7 104.1 64.8 49.1 6.7 12.1 19.1 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 8.2 20.7 16.5 97.7 62.2 46.3 8.5 14.7 22.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 60 40 0 100 10.3 26.6 19.0 109.2 66.3 51.4 10.9 17.7 26.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 7.8 18.0 17.3 99.6 62.9 47.7 8.1 13.1 19.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 8.9 16.1 19.3 93.1 58.2 46.7 9.0 13.5 18.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 4.4 15.5 16.5 107.9 66.0 49.8 3.7 8.4 15.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 27.9 29.4 20.3 99.0 61.1 50.3 14.1 22.4 32.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 7.4 16.0 17.7 96.5 61.5 45.5 7.8 12.3 17.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 8.5 17.0 20.5 95.9 59.8 47.6 8.8 13.7 19.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 6.2 14.8 15.9 95.3 60.7 48.2 5.9 10.7 17.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 14.4 15.3 17.2 97.3 61.5 49.7 6.7 11.2 17.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 6.7 14.9 18.2 95.3 60.6 47.7 6.7 11.3 17.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 63 37 0 100 8.7 24.5 21.8 97.8 60.9 46.3 9.4 17.5 28.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 62 38 0 100 4.5 16.8 15.5 108.9 66.6 50.2 4.5 9.4 16.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 7.2 15.7 16.6 95.9 61.1 47.8 7.1 11.8 17.7 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 7.7 22.3 16.8 113.2 67.8 50.3 7.8 13.7 21.2 29 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 10.5 20.5 22.7 94.4 58.5 47.6 10.9 16.8 24.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 6.6 20.1 15.4 100.1 63.2 47.9 6.3 12.8 22.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 9.0 17.6 23.2 99.4 60.7 51.1 8.8 13.7 19.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 63 37 0 100 6.2 17.7 17.6 102.5 64.2 46.4 6.9 11.9 18.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 5.7 22.7 17.5 115.6 68.4 50.3 5.4 11.6 20.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 62 38 0 100 6.8 17.8 15.7 96.5 61.5 46.0 7.2 12.9 20.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 59 41 0 100 10.0 21.7 19.6 95.1 59.7 46.7 10.5 17.0 25.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 60 40 0 100 6.7 19.4 19.3 103.5 64.3 48.9 6.9 12.6 20.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 4.9 11.2 15.9 89.9 58.3 46.9 4.3 8.4 14.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 61 39 0 100 6.7 16.9 18.3 98.9 62.7 48.2 7.1 12.0 18.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 6.0 16.7 17.5 106.4 65.4 50.7 6.2 10.8 16.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 12.7 24.3 23.0 97.0 59.5 48.7 13.4 19.9 27.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 6.3 17.3 15.7 101.1 63.6 48.4 6.4 11.4 18.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------