***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.05.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.05.2017.-04.06.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 63.8 62.5 69.0 100.1 56.6 51.2 43.4 56.9 71.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 35.7 49.3 57.8 93.3 51.0 45.6 36.3 48.6 62.3 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 42.3 58.5 63.4 93.9 51.2 47.0 42.9 57.5 74.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 77.0 70.7 69.2 93.8 51.1 45.4 55.9 69.7 84.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 46.5 61.9 68.1 94.9 52.1 46.6 47.4 60.2 74.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 63 37 0 100 43.5 51.1 71.5 83.4 39.5 39.0 46.9 58.0 69.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 52.2 45.7 58.7 93.7 51.7 46.7 30.8 44.2 59.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 77.1 87.1 71.8 86.6 42.5 41.7 78.3 94.3 111.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 39.9 52.8 69.3 93.6 50.8 46.5 41.3 52.3 64.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 49.9 59.8 75.4 88.6 44.4 43.0 51.8 63.9 77.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 40.3 49.7 64.6 90.8 47.7 44.0 41.0 51.1 62.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 36.4 46.9 63.9 89.1 46.2 43.0 37.5 49.8 63.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 36.3 45.4 69.8 89.8 46.7 43.0 37.2 47.6 58.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 56.3 66.4 76.3 86.3 42.8 41.3 57.4 73.2 90.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 36.9 49.3 59.5 92.2 50.8 44.8 38.3 48.7 59.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 41.9 51.1 65.4 90.6 48.0 43.3 43.5 52.0 60.8 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 34.6 51.1 58.3 95.5 52.8 45.3 35.8 48.8 63.7 29 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 58.2 65.4 80.5 87.4 42.7 42.5 59.5 70.0 81.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 43.5 59.4 58.2 92.3 49.9 45.1 44.1 59.4 76.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 67.6 58.3 82.6 89.6 44.4 43.8 50.7 62.0 74.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 42.2 57.0 69.2 99.6 56.1 49.4 43.2 53.1 63.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 38.6 55.5 58.6 93.1 50.4 43.1 40.1 54.9 72.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 39.9 49.8 59.3 89.4 47.3 43.2 40.7 51.7 63.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 54.5 64.3 71.5 87.6 44.3 42.6 56.0 68.5 81.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 42.9 60.9 75.1 98.8 55.3 49.3 43.5 56.4 70.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 60 40 0 100 31.6 37.2 59.3 80.4 38.0 37.2 34.0 45.6 58.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 62.8 60.6 73.5 99.9 56.2 51.0 40.9 55.0 70.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 42.4 51.0 64.1 90.8 49.0 43.9 43.5 51.7 60.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 74.0 82.1 81.5 87.4 42.5 42.5 75.1 87.8 100.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 58.4 51.9 58.9 93.1 50.8 46.5 38.1 51.3 66.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------