***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.05.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.05.2016.-29.05.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 12.7 12.3 13.8 0.0 49.7 49.9 11.2 12.3 13.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 12.6 12.3 13.6 0.1 51.6 51.3 11.3 12.3 13.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 14.4 14.0 13.9 -0.1 49.0 49.6 13.0 14.1 15.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 9.2 8.8 11.4 0.0 50.8 50.8 7.5 8.7 9.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 11.2 10.8 11.4 0.0 50.7 50.9 9.8 10.8 11.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 9.8 9.8 9.4 0.2 55.8 54.3 8.6 9.5 10.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 12.7 12.5 13.8 0.1 52.3 51.7 11.3 12.3 13.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 4.8 4.6 9.4 0.1 53.3 53.1 3.3 4.4 5.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 12.0 11.7 11.7 0.1 51.6 51.6 10.6 11.6 12.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 11.9 11.7 10.3 0.1 52.6 52.4 10.5 11.5 12.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 11.8 11.5 10.9 0.1 51.7 51.5 10.4 11.4 12.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 10.0 9.7 10.1 0.1 52.5 52.2 8.5 9.5 10.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 11.2 10.9 9.6 0.1 52.2 51.6 9.9 10.8 11.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 12.7 12.5 11.7 0.1 52.1 52.1 11.4 12.4 13.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 12.8 12.5 12.5 0.0 51.0 50.6 11.5 12.5 13.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 12.2 12.0 10.4 0.1 52.6 52.0 10.8 11.8 12.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 13.0 12.7 13.6 0.1 52.7 52.0 11.6 12.6 13.5 29 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 10.4 10.3 9.7 0.2 54.1 53.7 9.1 10.1 11.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 12.6 12.3 13.6 0.0 50.1 50.4 11.3 12.3 13.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 6.5 6.5 7.4 0.3 55.9 55.3 5.1 6.1 7.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 12.0 11.6 13.1 0.0 49.9 50.5 10.7 11.6 12.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 12.2 11.8 13.3 0.0 50.1 50.2 10.9 11.8 12.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 12.3 11.9 13.4 0.0 49.4 50.1 11.0 12.0 12.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 12.1 11.8 11.5 0.1 51.8 51.8 10.8 11.7 12.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 12.4 12.0 12.4 0.0 50.0 50.3 11.0 12.0 13.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 10.6 10.4 9.3 0.1 52.1 51.7 9.3 10.3 11.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 12.7 12.3 13.2 0.0 50.3 50.2 11.3 12.3 13.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 11.0 10.7 11.7 0.1 51.2 50.8 9.7 10.6 11.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 9.1 9.0 9.0 0.2 54.5 54.2 7.6 8.7 9.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 12.9 12.5 13.7 0.1 51.2 51.1 11.4 12.5 13.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------