***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.05.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.05.2016.-05.06.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 11.5 12.6 14.9 0.1 52.0 52.4 11.6 12.5 13.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 11.4 12.9 14.9 0.3 56.2 55.3 11.5 12.6 13.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 14.6 14.3 15.1 0.1 52.1 52.4 13.2 14.2 15.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 9.6 9.1 12.4 0.0 49.6 50.6 8.2 9.1 10.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 10.1 11.1 12.5 0.0 50.1 51.0 10.2 11.1 11.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 10.3 10.0 10.3 0.0 49.3 50.5 9.4 10.0 10.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 13.1 13.1 15.0 0.5 58.3 56.6 11.7 12.7 13.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 5.2 4.9 10.3 0.1 51.6 52.1 4.1 4.9 5.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 11.3 12.2 12.8 0.1 51.5 52.2 11.5 12.2 12.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 12.4 12.2 11.3 0.1 51.2 51.9 11.4 12.1 12.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 10.9 11.7 11.9 0.0 50.2 51.1 11.0 11.7 12.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 10.4 10.1 11.1 0.1 51.3 52.0 9.3 10.1 10.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 10.5 11.4 10.5 0.0 49.5 50.7 10.7 11.4 12.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 11.8 13.0 12.9 0.2 53.9 53.9 11.9 12.8 13.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 13.4 13.1 13.6 -0.1 48.9 49.9 12.4 13.1 13.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 12.5 12.1 11.4 0.0 50.2 51.2 11.3 12.1 12.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 13.3 13.3 14.8 0.4 57.8 56.4 12.0 12.9 13.7 29 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 11.1 10.9 10.8 0.1 52.5 52.8 10.0 10.8 11.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 13.0 12.8 14.8 0.2 54.3 54.2 11.7 12.6 13.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 6.0 6.8 8.3 0.1 51.9 52.2 6.1 6.7 7.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 11.2 12.2 14.2 0.1 51.5 52.1 11.3 12.1 12.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 12.6 12.5 14.6 0.3 55.9 55.3 11.4 12.2 13.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 12.6 12.4 14.7 0.1 52.8 53.3 11.2 12.2 13.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 11.3 12.3 12.7 0.1 52.5 52.9 11.4 12.2 12.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 11.1 12.2 13.4 0.0 50.6 51.4 11.3 12.2 13.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 10.1 11.0 10.4 0.1 52.3 52.9 10.2 10.9 11.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 11.0 12.4 14.2 0.1 51.9 52.3 11.2 12.3 13.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 11.3 11.0 12.7 0.0 49.9 50.8 10.4 11.0 11.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 9.5 9.3 10.0 0.1 52.5 52.7 8.2 9.1 10.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 11.6 13.0 15.0 0.3 55.2 54.6 11.8 12.7 13.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------