***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.05.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.05.2016.-15.05.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 90 10 100 23.5 23.1 21.8 -0.1 47.8 47.9 22.0 23.3 24.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 91 9 100 23.5 23.0 21.9 -0.2 46.7 46.9 21.9 23.3 24.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 91 9 100 23.6 23.3 22.1 -0.1 49.0 49.0 22.1 23.4 24.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 86 14 100 16.4 15.6 18.5 -0.4 44.1 44.6 14.7 16.0 17.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 91 9 100 23.6 23.5 20.3 0.0 50.6 50.6 22.1 23.4 24.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 88 12 100 22.2 22.2 18.0 0.3 53.6 53.4 20.6 21.9 23.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 92 8 100 23.0 22.7 21.9 0.0 49.3 49.4 21.5 22.8 24.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 89 11 100 11.5 11.1 18.0 -0.1 48.1 48.2 10.0 11.3 12.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 92 8 100 23.0 22.9 21.3 0.1 51.5 51.5 21.5 22.8 24.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 91 9 100 22.8 22.7 19.3 0.1 51.0 51.0 21.3 22.6 23.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 91 9 100 23.0 23.0 20.7 0.1 51.7 51.6 21.5 22.8 24.1 29 Krusevac 38200G21 0 88 12 100 22.4 22.0 19.0 -0.1 48.1 48.2 20.9 22.1 23.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 89 11 100 23.3 23.3 20.2 0.3 54.0 53.7 21.8 23.0 24.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 90 10 100 23.5 23.3 21.1 0.1 50.9 50.9 22.0 23.3 24.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 84 16 100 23.6 22.5 20.9 -0.6 40.2 40.9 21.9 23.3 24.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 89 11 100 23.8 23.8 20.1 0.2 52.8 52.6 22.2 23.6 24.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 92 8 100 22.6 22.3 21.6 -0.1 47.9 48.0 21.1 22.5 23.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 89 11 100 22.5 22.3 18.4 0.0 49.6 49.6 21.0 22.3 23.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 91 9 100 23.0 22.6 21.9 -0.2 46.6 46.8 21.5 22.8 24.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 90 10 100 17.7 17.2 16.1 -0.3 46.2 46.4 16.2 17.5 18.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 91 9 100 23.3 23.0 22.0 -0.1 49.1 49.2 21.7 23.1 24.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 90 10 100 23.3 22.8 21.5 -0.2 46.5 46.7 21.7 23.1 24.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 90 10 100 23.5 23.2 21.9 -0.1 48.5 48.6 21.9 23.3 24.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 89 11 100 23.0 22.8 20.9 0.1 50.8 50.8 21.4 22.7 23.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 92 8 100 23.3 22.8 20.7 -0.2 46.8 47.1 21.8 23.1 24.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 88 12 100 22.7 22.5 18.1 0.0 49.9 49.9 21.2 22.5 23.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 91 9 100 23.1 22.7 21.3 -0.2 47.1 47.3 21.6 22.9 24.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 86 14 100 23.5 22.8 19.6 -0.4 44.3 44.7 21.9 23.2 24.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 90 10 100 17.6 17.3 17.7 -0.1 48.9 49.0 16.1 17.4 18.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 91 9 100 23.3 22.9 22.0 -0.1 48.1 48.2 21.7 23.1 24.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------