***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.05.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.05.2016.-22.05.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 24.0 22.5 21.6 -0.7 41.1 42.6 21.6 23.4 25.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 24.5 23.1 21.6 -0.7 41.3 42.7 22.2 23.9 25.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 24.5 23.0 21.8 -0.8 41.0 42.4 22.2 23.9 25.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 17.3 15.8 19.0 -0.7 40.7 42.0 14.9 16.7 18.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 24.8 23.4 20.0 -0.7 41.5 42.8 22.4 24.2 25.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 23.2 22.2 17.9 -0.5 44.1 44.8 21.1 22.7 24.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 24.1 23.0 21.7 -0.5 43.2 44.4 22.0 23.6 25.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 12.8 11.8 18.3 -0.3 46.1 46.5 10.6 12.2 13.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 24.2 22.9 20.7 -0.6 42.7 43.9 21.8 23.6 25.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 24.2 23.0 19.2 -0.5 44.5 45.4 21.9 23.6 25.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 24.5 23.1 20.2 -0.6 43.0 44.0 22.1 23.8 25.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 23.4 22.4 19.2 -0.4 44.7 45.4 21.3 22.8 24.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 24.6 23.5 19.3 -0.6 43.6 44.4 22.5 24.1 25.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 24.5 23.3 20.5 -0.4 45.3 46.2 21.9 23.8 25.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 25.0 23.5 20.8 -0.9 38.7 40.1 22.9 24.4 25.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 25.1 23.8 19.6 -0.6 43.2 44.2 22.8 24.5 26.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 23.8 22.7 21.5 -0.5 43.4 44.6 21.7 23.3 24.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 23.8 22.8 18.6 -0.3 46.9 47.4 21.3 23.1 24.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 24.0 22.5 21.6 -0.8 40.7 42.2 21.8 23.4 24.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 18.8 18.1 16.5 -0.1 49.1 49.2 16.6 18.2 19.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 24.4 23.0 21.5 -0.7 41.6 42.8 22.1 23.8 25.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 24.3 23.0 21.3 -0.7 41.8 43.3 22.1 23.7 25.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 24.4 23.0 21.6 -0.6 42.1 43.5 22.0 23.8 25.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 23.9 22.7 20.4 -0.5 44.4 45.4 21.5 23.3 24.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 24.4 22.8 20.3 -0.8 40.2 41.6 22.1 23.8 25.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 23.8 22.9 18.4 -0.4 45.4 45.8 21.8 23.3 24.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 24.2 22.8 21.0 -0.7 41.2 42.5 22.0 23.7 25.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 24.9 23.4 19.7 -0.8 40.5 41.8 22.7 24.3 25.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 18.7 17.9 17.9 -0.2 48.1 48.5 16.3 18.1 19.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 24.3 22.9 21.7 -0.7 41.2 42.6 22.1 23.7 25.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------