***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.05.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.05.2016.-29.05.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 24.8 23.7 23.1 -0.5 43.0 45.9 22.8 24.3 25.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 25.1 24.2 23.1 -0.5 44.1 46.7 23.4 24.6 25.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 25.0 23.9 23.3 -0.6 42.2 45.4 23.2 24.5 25.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 17.5 16.1 20.8 -0.8 39.7 43.3 15.5 17.0 18.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 25.0 23.8 21.4 -0.6 41.7 45.2 23.1 24.5 25.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 23.4 22.5 19.3 -0.3 45.9 47.9 21.4 22.8 24.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 24.6 23.8 23.3 -0.3 45.8 48.0 22.8 24.1 25.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 12.8 11.8 19.7 -0.4 44.7 47.4 10.7 12.2 13.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 24.4 23.3 21.7 -0.6 42.6 46.0 22.5 23.9 25.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 24.2 23.3 20.4 -0.5 43.9 47.0 22.4 23.7 25.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 24.7 23.6 21.1 -0.5 43.3 46.6 22.7 24.1 25.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 23.4 22.4 20.7 -0.4 44.1 46.9 21.5 22.9 24.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 24.6 23.6 20.0 -0.4 44.6 47.3 22.6 24.0 25.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 24.9 23.9 21.4 -0.5 43.8 46.7 23.1 24.4 25.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 25.3 23.8 21.6 -0.8 38.0 41.5 23.4 24.7 26.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 25.2 24.1 20.7 -0.5 43.6 46.7 23.2 24.6 26.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 24.4 23.7 23.2 -0.3 46.6 48.6 22.6 23.9 25.2 29 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 23.8 22.9 19.9 -0.4 44.7 47.5 21.9 23.3 24.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 24.6 23.6 23.1 -0.6 42.9 45.8 22.9 24.1 25.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 19.0 18.1 17.5 -0.3 46.1 48.2 16.9 18.4 19.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 24.6 23.5 22.6 -0.7 41.7 45.1 22.8 24.2 25.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 25.0 24.0 22.8 -0.4 44.2 46.8 23.2 24.5 25.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 25.0 24.0 23.0 -0.6 42.9 46.0 23.2 24.5 25.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 24.3 23.3 21.4 -0.6 43.1 46.3 22.5 23.8 25.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 24.8 23.6 21.4 -0.6 41.5 44.7 22.9 24.2 25.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 23.9 23.2 20.2 -0.1 48.4 50.0 22.0 23.4 24.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 24.5 23.5 22.4 -0.5 43.5 46.4 22.7 24.0 25.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 25.2 23.8 21.0 -0.8 39.3 42.8 23.3 24.6 25.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 18.9 18.0 19.1 -0.4 45.4 48.0 16.9 18.4 19.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 24.9 23.9 23.2 -0.5 43.6 46.4 23.1 24.4 25.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------