***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.05.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.05.2016.-15.05.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 8 92 100 18.3 27.0 30.2 204.4 87.0 81.4 4.0 7.8 13.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 20 80 100 13.1 17.5 26.1 178.1 83.2 76.2 3.6 6.4 10.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 19 81 100 16.3 23.6 26.6 184.6 84.5 77.9 3.5 7.1 12.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 22 78 100 23.0 31.3 32.2 174.9 82.4 76.1 4.9 10.1 17.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 24 76 100 16.6 22.9 27.9 172.7 82.3 75.6 3.7 7.4 12.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 83 17 100 11.7 17.3 25.4 122.2 69.9 64.3 5.2 9.6 15.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 18 82 100 15.3 22.8 27.1 189.9 85.1 78.5 3.0 6.3 11.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 84 16 100 18.2 23.7 26.7 117.3 68.2 61.5 10.5 16.0 22.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 35 65 100 14.8 19.7 26.2 155.3 79.4 73.0 3.7 7.4 12.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 44 56 100 18.0 19.9 27.2 129.7 72.1 65.7 5.7 10.3 16.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 39 61 100 11.4 13.8 24.9 145.2 76.2 68.5 3.6 6.4 10.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 43 57 100 13.2 14.1 23.7 126.2 71.1 63.7 4.6 7.9 12.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 84 16 100 6.5 9.0 21.6 112.4 67.2 60.9 2.8 5.3 8.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 35 65 100 16.2 18.8 26.7 139.6 75.2 68.9 3.7 7.7 13.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 30 70 100 14.1 20.2 28.4 180.2 82.6 74.2 3.5 6.8 11.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 42 58 100 11.5 13.2 23.3 135.0 73.9 65.1 4.2 7.0 10.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 17 83 100 18.4 26.4 26.8 190.1 85.2 77.9 4.4 8.4 14.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 86 14 100 13.4 19.3 26.1 118.0 68.5 63.2 6.3 11.4 18.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 21 79 100 18.9 25.9 25.8 175.5 83.0 75.4 4.4 8.6 14.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 84 16 100 11.5 15.7 24.4 114.4 67.1 60.3 5.1 9.5 15.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 27 73 100 15.9 23.5 27.5 179.2 83.7 76.7 3.8 7.5 12.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 27 73 100 16.7 23.5 25.8 178.8 83.2 75.6 4.6 8.5 13.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 22 78 100 13.5 18.0 24.8 167.6 81.7 75.0 2.9 5.9 10.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 37 63 100 18.8 22.1 26.0 144.3 75.6 68.7 5.7 10.2 16.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 9 91 100 21.0 34.7 35.4 230.6 90.1 84.5 5.3 9.6 15.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 83 17 100 7.8 10.6 19.5 110.2 66.2 59.6 3.2 6.3 10.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 8 92 100 20.5 33.8 33.5 220.9 89.0 84.1 4.0 8.2 14.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 36 64 100 14.3 18.4 27.8 153.9 78.3 70.3 4.1 7.6 12.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 85 15 100 15.2 22.9 25.5 120.2 69.4 63.5 6.7 12.6 20.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 20 80 100 17.0 24.5 26.6 181.7 83.9 77.9 3.3 7.1 12.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------