***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.05.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.05.2016.-22.05.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 19.5 24.0 19.8 111.3 66.1 54.1 9.8 16.1 24.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 13.5 14.6 16.1 100.0 61.8 50.5 5.9 10.5 16.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 18.1 20.3 17.9 102.3 62.8 52.6 8.7 14.5 22.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 17.6 17.2 15.3 88.5 56.7 49.2 8.4 14.3 22.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 19.6 19.2 15.5 89.5 56.8 49.9 8.3 15.5 25.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 6.9 11.4 17.1 80.7 49.8 44.0 6.6 11.4 17.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 12.9 14.6 16.1 103.4 63.2 51.5 5.4 9.8 15.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 24.9 22.4 15.5 82.7 54.2 47.2 13.1 20.4 29.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 14.3 14.9 16.2 93.3 59.0 50.4 7.0 11.7 17.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 18.0 17.4 17.4 89.7 57.2 48.7 8.9 14.4 21.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 13.6 12.4 16.4 88.9 55.6 49.3 5.6 10.4 17.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 13.1 10.0 13.6 75.6 49.0 43.9 6.1 10.3 15.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 12.1 10.3 15.8 81.7 52.2 46.4 5.7 9.7 15.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 19.3 18.7 19.9 92.6 58.1 49.7 7.9 14.5 23.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 9.7 11.4 16.3 101.0 63.3 53.4 3.9 7.4 12.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 15.6 14.0 15.2 84.1 53.8 47.9 7.5 12.6 19.3 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 5.3 11.4 14.0 91.7 58.5 47.9 4.8 8.8 14.0 29 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 9.4 16.2 18.8 86.5 53.4 45.5 9.1 14.9 22.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 18.4 19.3 16.1 96.9 60.2 50.3 8.2 14.4 22.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 8.8 12.5 17.3 75.2 44.8 39.5 9.1 14.4 21.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 15.2 17.1 16.7 98.1 61.1 51.4 7.3 12.6 19.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 14.0 15.0 15.1 98.8 61.4 51.4 6.7 11.2 16.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 14.9 15.3 16.6 93.9 58.7 50.5 7.3 12.1 18.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 18.6 17.2 18.0 88.0 55.7 47.5 9.1 14.9 22.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 17.0 18.9 20.4 100.7 61.5 53.2 8.5 14.1 21.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 5.0 9.6 15.8 83.4 53.2 47.0 4.5 8.6 14.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 17.9 22.0 21.4 110.6 65.6 54.7 8.3 14.3 22.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 11.6 11.7 14.2 88.1 57.6 49.6 5.8 9.5 14.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 13.3 19.8 18.9 82.0 49.9 43.1 13.5 20.0 27.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 8.3 19.6 17.5 107.1 64.7 52.1 7.9 13.3 20.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------