***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.05.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.05.2016.-05.06.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 16.8 20.4 14.2 100.4 64.9 53.3 8.0 13.6 21.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 14.8 16.8 12.2 90.8 62.3 50.0 6.6 11.8 18.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 20.9 23.6 13.1 92.4 62.3 52.9 9.6 16.6 26.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 21.1 25.2 15.6 101.3 65.1 54.1 10.1 17.2 25.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 14.7 17.8 16.0 104.0 66.2 54.8 7.9 12.3 17.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 14.8 18.1 18.5 111.2 67.0 55.3 7.4 12.0 17.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 13.0 15.9 12.5 94.6 63.2 50.4 4.9 10.1 17.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 25.3 28.6 17.9 102.3 64.2 54.5 15.7 22.1 29.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 16.2 19.7 16.4 103.0 65.9 55.4 8.7 13.6 19.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 15.0 17.4 18.6 101.1 64.2 55.0 8.6 12.9 18.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 13.3 15.6 14.3 98.3 64.4 53.3 7.0 11.1 16.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 13.8 15.9 14.9 99.1 63.8 53.8 7.1 11.3 16.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 12.8 14.5 16.1 98.7 63.7 53.3 5.7 10.0 15.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 25.3 27.3 17.5 88.0 60.7 51.1 10.8 19.8 31.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 13.9 17.0 12.6 96.8 64.7 51.5 5.1 10.2 17.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 12.6 15.1 15.2 101.3 65.1 53.6 5.6 9.9 15.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 17.5 20.1 12.1 98.1 63.5 48.1 7.7 13.7 21.7 29 Palic 37000G16 0 83 17 100 20.0 23.2 20.6 98.5 63.0 55.9 11.3 17.4 24.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 18.0 19.4 11.9 86.1 60.6 49.2 6.5 13.3 23.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 15.7 17.7 19.8 100.3 62.2 54.5 8.8 13.6 19.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 16.4 20.6 15.4 106.6 67.0 56.0 9.0 14.0 20.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 18.4 18.8 11.6 85.6 59.9 46.2 6.3 13.2 23.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 17.3 17.9 12.0 84.3 59.5 48.5 7.3 13.4 21.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 19.9 22.7 16.9 91.6 61.7 53.6 9.8 16.5 25.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 16.7 22.2 16.9 108.6 67.2 55.7 7.5 13.5 21.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 9.9 11.5 13.5 98.9 63.3 53.5 3.8 7.5 12.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 15.1 19.7 16.3 106.0 66.8 55.0 7.0 12.3 19.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 13.8 16.3 14.8 98.2 64.7 52.8 6.4 10.9 16.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 83 17 100 21.9 25.0 20.6 100.6 63.3 55.6 13.8 19.6 26.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 83 17 100 15.0 17.5 12.3 88.4 61.9 51.4 7.0 12.4 19.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------