***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.05.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.05.2016.-05.06.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 29 71 100 78.1 87.5 85.2 137.1 78.3 71.1 42.8 56.2 71.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 41 59 100 65.2 67.0 70.1 120.9 70.4 64.4 40.3 51.3 63.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 37 63 100 81.1 85.1 77.4 124.5 72.5 65.6 45.1 60.0 76.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 39 61 100 89.6 93.8 85.3 124.7 72.5 65.4 58.4 71.9 86.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 65.2 80.1 81.6 124.3 71.9 64.5 47.4 60.3 73.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 63.9 68.2 86.4 108.0 62.8 56.0 47.2 58.5 71.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 37 63 100 65.5 71.1 72.7 127.3 74.0 66.9 34.7 47.2 61.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 103.1 102.4 81.7 101.4 56.7 51.7 80.3 95.8 112.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 39 61 100 68.6 70.0 81.9 120.0 70.4 61.8 42.1 53.5 66.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 69.5 73.4 87.8 108.5 62.5 56.0 51.0 63.5 76.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 54.9 60.6 75.4 112.1 65.0 58.2 40.3 50.4 61.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 56.9 56.1 71.4 101.6 56.9 52.0 38.7 50.7 64.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 52.9 52.6 75.5 100.8 56.9 52.4 38.0 48.2 59.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 85.2 88.0 87.8 105.3 60.8 55.6 60.1 76.6 94.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 44 56 100 63.8 70.6 78.2 130.5 74.3 65.5 38.6 49.9 62.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 56.8 60.7 75.3 110.5 64.0 57.6 44.7 53.2 61.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 38 62 100 69.3 73.2 69.5 124.7 72.5 65.5 37.0 50.4 65.5 29 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 76.4 76.9 92.5 102.6 57.9 53.1 60.2 71.5 83.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 68.0 81.2 70.2 117.7 68.7 62.9 47.4 61.9 77.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 68.3 64.5 86.6 96.6 51.8 48.5 51.7 63.3 75.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 37 63 100 68.6 73.1 81.3 127.8 74.3 65.9 43.9 54.6 65.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 65.1 82.8 70.8 122.3 71.3 63.4 43.0 58.4 75.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 57.0 64.4 71.0 113.5 66.2 60.7 41.1 52.1 64.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 76.1 80.2 85.0 108.4 62.5 56.9 57.9 70.3 83.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 31 69 100 76.8 89.0 97.2 141.8 80.7 72.7 45.5 57.9 71.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 51.9 50.0 67.8 98.3 55.1 51.0 35.6 46.4 58.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 27 73 100 79.0 91.8 94.6 142.1 80.8 72.7 42.3 56.1 71.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 54.8 62.9 79.0 119.7 69.9 61.9 43.0 51.5 60.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 93.4 93.0 91.3 101.1 56.6 52.3 75.1 87.8 100.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 34 66 100 72.5 74.8 73.3 124.1 72.2 65.6 39.1 52.5 67.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------