***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.05.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.05.2021.-16.05.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 26 74 100 12.1 12.2 13.3 1.4 73.0 71.9 10.2 11.0 11.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 30 70 100 12.3 12.4 12.9 1.2 71.5 70.5 10.4 11.2 12.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 40 60 100 13.7 13.7 13.1 1.0 68.5 67.7 11.9 12.8 13.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 8.3 7.3 8.6 -0.6 39.0 39.5 6.9 7.9 8.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 90 10 100 9.7 10.1 10.7 0.6 61.8 61.2 8.7 9.5 10.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 7.6 7.8 6.4 -0.8 34.6 35.3 7.7 8.5 9.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 89 11 100 11.2 11.9 12.6 0.9 65.5 64.6 10.2 11.1 11.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 92 8 100 3.6 3.9 7.7 0.5 59.5 58.7 2.7 3.5 4.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 43 57 100 11.1 11.2 11.1 0.9 68.2 67.4 9.5 10.3 11.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 90 10 100 10.4 10.8 8.9 0.7 63.4 62.5 9.5 10.2 10.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 94 6 100 10.1 10.4 10.0 0.4 58.7 58.2 9.3 10.1 10.8 29 Krusevac 38200G21 0 93 7 100 8.3 8.5 8.6 0.2 54.6 54.3 7.5 8.3 9.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 9.9 9.2 8.0 -0.5 38.6 39.1 8.9 9.7 10.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 92 8 100 10.9 11.2 10.2 0.4 58.5 57.9 10.1 10.8 11.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 83 17 100 11.4 10.5 10.2 -0.7 35.8 36.4 10.4 11.2 11.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 11.1 10.3 8.7 -0.5 40.0 40.4 10.0 10.8 11.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 34 66 100 12.3 12.4 12.6 1.3 72.0 70.8 10.6 11.3 12.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 91 9 100 8.8 8.9 8.0 0.3 56.6 56.1 7.9 8.6 9.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 29 71 100 12.1 12.2 13.0 1.3 71.8 70.8 10.4 11.2 11.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 89 11 100 5.2 5.6 6.5 0.6 62.5 61.7 4.3 5.0 5.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 46 54 100 11.1 11.2 12.2 0.9 67.4 66.7 9.6 10.4 11.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 27 73 100 11.6 11.7 12.8 1.3 72.8 71.3 9.8 10.6 11.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 41 59 100 11.5 11.6 12.7 1.1 70.0 68.8 10.0 10.7 11.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 90 10 100 10.5 10.8 10.3 0.5 59.6 59.0 9.6 10.3 11.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 45 55 100 11.5 11.5 12.1 1.1 68.1 67.2 9.9 10.7 11.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 89 11 100 9.6 9.3 7.4 -0.1 47.2 47.2 8.7 9.5 10.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 32 68 100 12.5 12.6 12.8 1.3 71.8 70.6 10.3 11.3 12.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 9.6 8.6 9.0 -0.8 34.7 35.4 8.5 9.3 10.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 91 9 100 7.8 8.1 7.3 0.4 59.0 58.4 6.8 7.7 8.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 31 69 100 12.2 12.2 13.1 1.2 70.4 69.5 10.3 11.1 11.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------