***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.05.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.05.2021.-23.05.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 41 59 100 13.1 13.1 13.9 1.0 67.3 62.9 11.4 12.2 13.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 12.4 12.8 13.4 0.8 64.3 60.3 11.3 12.1 12.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 40 60 100 14.7 14.6 13.8 0.9 65.8 61.4 12.7 13.7 14.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 37 63 100 10.1 10.0 10.9 0.9 67.3 63.0 7.5 8.7 9.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 39 61 100 11.5 11.5 11.5 0.9 67.1 62.7 10.0 10.8 11.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 9.8 10.1 8.8 0.7 64.6 60.5 8.8 9.5 10.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 12.5 12.8 13.4 0.8 62.8 59.5 11.3 12.2 13.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 4.6 5.0 8.7 0.7 64.3 60.1 3.3 4.2 5.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 11.9 12.4 11.6 0.9 67.6 63.1 10.8 11.6 12.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 11.6 12.0 9.7 0.8 65.5 61.3 10.6 11.3 12.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 39 61 100 12.0 11.9 10.9 0.8 66.4 61.9 10.5 11.2 11.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 9.6 9.9 9.8 0.7 63.8 60.0 8.6 9.3 10.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 11.1 11.2 9.4 0.5 60.2 57.8 10.1 10.8 11.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 12.4 12.9 11.3 0.7 65.7 61.3 11.3 12.1 12.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 42 58 100 13.1 13.2 12.6 1.0 68.6 64.5 11.6 12.4 13.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 12.0 12.3 10.2 0.6 62.5 59.3 10.9 11.7 12.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 12.8 13.2 13.2 0.9 65.2 60.8 11.6 12.4 13.2 29 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 10.1 10.5 9.0 0.7 64.7 60.9 9.1 9.9 10.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 12.5 12.9 13.5 0.8 64.8 60.5 11.4 12.2 13.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 6.2 6.5 7.1 0.7 63.8 60.5 5.2 5.9 6.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 11.8 12.4 13.0 1.0 68.2 63.5 10.8 11.6 12.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 11.8 12.3 13.3 0.9 66.8 61.6 10.8 11.5 12.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 12.1 12.4 13.3 0.8 64.8 60.1 11.0 11.8 12.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 11.7 12.2 11.2 0.8 65.6 61.5 10.8 11.5 12.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 12.2 12.8 12.7 1.1 67.8 63.5 11.2 12.0 12.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 10.5 10.8 8.9 0.6 62.0 59.1 9.6 10.3 11.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 12.6 13.3 13.3 1.0 67.0 63.2 11.3 12.3 13.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 40 60 100 11.2 11.2 11.4 0.9 67.4 63.4 9.8 10.5 11.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 8.8 9.4 8.4 0.8 65.7 61.5 7.4 8.4 9.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 12.7 13.1 13.6 0.8 63.9 60.1 11.4 12.4 13.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------