***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.05.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.05.2021.-30.05.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 11.0 12.8 14.5 0.4 56.6 55.5 11.3 12.4 13.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 11.2 12.6 14.1 0.2 53.3 53.2 11.4 12.4 13.4 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 12.9 14.5 14.5 0.4 55.9 55.2 13.1 14.2 15.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 7.4 9.4 11.9 0.4 57.9 56.1 7.6 8.8 10.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 9.7 11.3 12.0 0.4 58.0 56.1 9.9 10.9 11.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 9.9 10.0 9.8 0.4 58.6 56.8 8.6 9.5 10.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 11.2 12.6 14.1 0.2 52.4 52.5 11.4 12.4 13.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 4.9 4.8 9.6 0.3 56.1 55.0 3.3 4.5 5.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 12.1 12.1 12.1 0.4 57.0 55.6 10.7 11.7 12.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 12.0 12.0 10.5 0.4 56.8 55.3 10.7 11.6 12.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 11.8 11.8 11.4 0.4 57.6 55.8 10.4 11.4 12.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 10.0 10.0 10.5 0.3 56.6 55.3 8.7 9.6 10.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 9.8 11.2 10.0 0.4 57.6 56.1 9.9 10.8 11.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 11.3 12.7 11.8 0.3 54.8 54.4 11.5 12.5 13.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 12.9 12.9 13.2 0.4 57.6 55.7 11.6 12.5 13.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 10.7 12.3 10.8 0.4 58.5 56.4 10.9 11.8 12.7 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 11.4 12.8 13.9 0.2 53.1 52.9 11.6 12.7 13.6 29 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 10.5 10.5 9.6 0.3 56.7 55.5 9.2 10.1 11.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 11.2 12.6 14.1 0.3 54.0 53.7 11.4 12.4 13.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 6.6 6.6 7.4 0.3 56.7 55.6 5.2 6.2 7.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 10.6 12.2 13.6 0.5 57.9 56.4 10.8 11.7 12.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 10.8 12.1 13.7 0.2 53.6 53.2 11.0 12.0 12.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 11.0 12.3 13.9 0.2 54.0 53.8 11.1 12.1 12.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 12.2 12.1 11.6 0.3 55.4 54.7 10.9 11.8 12.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 10.8 12.4 13.0 0.4 56.4 55.3 11.0 12.0 13.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 10.7 10.7 9.7 0.4 57.8 56.2 9.4 10.3 11.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 11.0 12.7 13.8 0.4 55.7 55.0 11.3 12.3 13.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 9.7 11.1 12.3 0.5 58.8 56.6 9.8 10.7 11.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 9.2 9.2 9.0 0.3 56.5 55.4 7.7 8.8 9.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 11.3 12.8 14.3 0.2 53.5 53.4 11.5 12.6 13.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------