***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.05.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 31.05.2021.-06.06.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 13.0 13.0 15.3 0.4 56.6 56.1 11.8 12.6 13.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 13.2 13.1 15.0 0.3 54.3 54.4 11.8 12.8 13.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 14.8 14.7 15.4 0.4 56.3 56.0 13.3 14.4 15.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 9.8 9.9 12.8 0.5 59.1 57.9 8.4 9.4 10.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 11.6 11.7 12.8 0.5 58.6 57.8 10.4 11.2 12.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 10.5 10.6 10.7 0.5 59.3 57.9 9.6 10.3 10.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 13.3 13.1 15.0 0.2 53.5 53.7 12.0 12.9 13.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 4.1 5.2 10.4 0.3 55.3 55.4 4.2 5.0 5.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 12.6 12.6 12.9 0.4 57.5 57.1 11.6 12.3 13.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 12.6 12.6 11.3 0.4 56.9 56.7 11.5 12.3 12.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 12.2 12.3 12.2 0.4 57.5 57.1 11.2 11.9 12.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 10.5 10.5 11.3 0.3 55.4 55.4 9.5 10.2 10.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 10.7 11.9 10.7 0.3 56.7 56.4 10.8 11.6 12.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 13.3 13.3 12.9 0.4 57.9 57.2 12.0 12.9 13.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 13.6 13.6 14.1 0.5 59.2 57.7 12.5 13.2 13.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 12.7 12.7 11.7 0.4 58.3 57.6 11.6 12.3 13.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 13.5 13.4 14.8 0.3 54.9 54.6 12.2 13.1 14.0 29 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 11.3 11.3 10.5 0.4 57.8 57.4 10.1 11.0 11.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 13.1 13.1 15.1 0.3 55.0 55.0 11.9 12.8 13.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 7.1 7.0 8.1 0.3 55.6 55.7 6.2 6.8 7.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 12.6 12.7 14.4 0.5 58.4 57.6 11.5 12.3 13.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 12.8 12.7 14.7 0.3 55.8 55.3 11.5 12.4 13.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 12.8 12.7 14.9 0.3 55.8 55.5 11.4 12.4 13.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 12.7 12.7 12.6 0.4 57.6 57.1 11.5 12.3 13.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 12.7 12.8 13.7 0.4 57.3 56.8 11.5 12.4 13.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 10.3 11.3 10.5 0.3 55.9 55.7 10.4 11.1 11.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 13.0 13.0 14.5 0.4 56.4 55.9 11.5 12.6 13.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 11.5 11.6 13.2 0.5 60.2 58.4 10.5 11.2 11.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 9.7 9.7 9.8 0.4 57.3 56.9 8.5 9.3 10.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 13.4 13.2 15.2 0.2 54.0 54.2 12.0 13.0 13.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------