***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.05.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.05.2021.-06.06.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 31 69 100 12.7 12.7 14.2 0.8 70.0 66.3 11.5 12.1 12.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 34 66 100 12.8 12.7 13.9 0.6 65.9 62.9 11.6 12.1 12.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 33 67 100 14.4 14.3 14.2 0.7 67.1 63.8 13.2 13.7 14.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 36 64 100 9.5 9.1 11.1 0.3 58.9 57.9 8.0 8.7 9.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 34 66 100 11.2 11.1 11.8 0.6 67.4 64.0 10.1 10.6 11.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 9.6 9.6 9.0 0.2 56.7 55.8 9.0 9.4 9.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 37 63 100 12.7 12.5 13.8 0.5 62.6 60.3 11.6 12.1 12.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 36 64 100 4.9 4.7 9.1 0.4 63.5 60.7 3.8 4.3 4.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 30 70 100 12.1 12.0 11.9 0.6 69.1 65.1 11.0 11.5 11.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 34 66 100 11.9 11.8 10.1 0.5 66.4 62.9 10.9 11.4 11.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 32 68 100 11.7 11.6 11.1 0.5 65.4 62.3 10.7 11.2 11.6 29 Krusevac 38200G21 0 36 64 100 9.9 9.7 10.0 0.4 61.8 59.6 8.9 9.4 9.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 10.9 10.9 9.5 0.2 55.6 55.1 10.2 10.7 11.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 36 64 100 12.7 12.5 11.6 0.5 64.2 61.6 11.6 12.1 12.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 12.5 12.6 12.5 0.3 58.3 57.5 11.8 12.3 12.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 11.9 11.9 10.4 0.3 57.8 56.9 11.1 11.7 12.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 33 67 100 13.0 12.9 13.6 0.7 66.8 63.3 11.8 12.4 12.9 29 Palic 37000G16 0 35 65 100 10.5 10.3 9.3 0.4 64.3 61.3 9.4 9.9 10.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 35 65 100 12.8 12.7 13.9 0.7 66.7 63.4 11.6 12.1 12.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 34 66 100 6.5 6.4 7.3 0.5 65.4 62.3 5.6 6.0 6.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 30 70 100 12.1 12.0 13.3 0.7 69.4 65.5 11.0 11.5 11.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 37 63 100 12.2 12.1 13.6 0.7 68.0 64.0 11.1 11.6 12.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 33 67 100 12.4 12.3 13.7 0.6 66.3 62.8 11.2 11.7 12.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 35 65 100 12.1 11.9 11.4 0.5 64.8 61.7 11.0 11.5 12.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 31 69 100 12.4 12.4 12.9 0.7 68.9 65.4 11.2 11.8 12.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 10.5 10.5 9.1 0.3 59.0 57.9 9.8 10.3 10.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 31 69 100 12.8 12.8 13.6 0.8 69.3 65.9 11.5 12.1 12.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 10.6 10.6 11.5 0.3 58.2 57.5 10.0 10.4 10.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 35 65 100 9.2 9.1 8.6 0.5 65.3 61.9 8.0 8.6 9.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 36 64 100 12.9 12.7 14.1 0.6 65.3 62.5 11.7 12.3 12.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------