***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.05.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.05.2021.-16.05.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 41 59 100 24.8 25.1 23.7 1.8 71.8 69.4 22.1 23.4 24.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 39 61 100 25.0 25.4 24.1 1.9 72.2 70.1 22.2 23.6 24.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 35 65 100 25.1 25.4 24.0 1.9 72.6 70.3 22.3 23.6 24.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 84 16 100 16.6 16.9 19.3 0.7 59.2 58.5 14.9 16.2 17.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 38 62 100 25.0 25.0 21.6 1.5 68.4 66.5 22.3 23.6 24.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 83 17 100 22.6 23.1 18.8 1.1 63.0 61.7 20.9 22.2 23.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 41 59 100 24.4 24.7 23.7 1.8 71.7 69.7 21.8 23.0 24.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 29 71 100 13.0 13.3 20.0 2.1 74.4 71.8 10.3 11.5 12.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 31 69 100 24.6 24.7 22.8 1.8 71.2 69.1 21.7 23.0 24.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 24 76 100 24.4 24.7 21.1 2.2 75.3 72.7 21.5 22.8 23.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 28 72 100 24.7 24.9 22.6 2.1 74.0 71.6 21.8 23.1 24.3 29 Krusevac 38200G21 0 34 66 100 23.7 23.9 21.0 1.9 71.6 69.5 21.2 22.4 23.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 35 65 100 24.7 24.8 21.8 1.7 70.6 68.7 22.1 23.3 24.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 16 84 100 25.4 26.3 23.3 2.9 83.2 80.0 22.1 23.5 24.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 85 15 100 23.8 24.0 22.2 0.6 57.7 57.2 22.1 23.4 24.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 39 61 100 25.3 25.3 21.5 1.5 68.5 66.8 22.5 23.9 25.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 25 75 100 24.4 25.1 24.1 2.5 79.5 76.4 21.3 22.7 23.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 25 75 100 24.1 24.6 20.3 2.4 77.2 74.4 21.2 22.5 23.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 34 66 100 24.6 25.0 24.2 2.1 74.1 71.8 21.8 23.1 24.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 23 77 100 19.4 19.8 18.2 2.4 77.4 74.2 16.4 17.7 18.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 28 72 100 24.9 25.1 23.7 1.9 72.8 70.4 21.9 23.3 24.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 18 82 100 25.3 26.2 24.3 2.8 82.7 79.3 22.0 23.3 24.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 26 74 100 25.2 25.7 24.4 2.4 77.3 74.6 22.2 23.5 24.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 26 74 100 24.5 25.1 22.8 2.4 78.0 75.1 21.7 22.9 24.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 44 56 100 24.5 24.5 22.0 1.3 66.3 64.6 22.0 23.2 24.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 36 64 100 24.1 24.2 20.2 1.9 71.0 68.9 21.5 22.7 23.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 43 57 100 24.3 24.6 23.0 1.6 70.7 68.4 21.9 23.1 24.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 84 16 100 23.8 24.2 20.6 0.8 60.0 59.3 22.0 23.4 24.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 19 81 100 19.4 20.0 19.8 2.7 80.4 77.2 16.3 17.6 18.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 43 57 100 24.6 24.9 23.9 1.7 70.1 68.2 22.0 23.3 24.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------