***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.05.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.05.2021.-23.05.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 34 66 100 25.3 25.7 24.6 1.9 73.1 66.8 21.5 23.3 24.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 24.5 25.4 24.2 1.4 66.2 61.5 22.2 23.8 25.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 35 65 100 25.8 25.9 24.6 1.8 70.2 64.4 22.1 23.8 25.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 37 63 100 18.7 19.1 21.5 1.8 72.0 66.5 14.9 16.7 18.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 33 67 100 26.3 26.6 22.8 1.9 72.4 66.8 22.4 24.2 25.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 23.1 24.3 20.0 1.5 68.7 63.7 21.0 22.6 24.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 39 61 100 25.3 25.0 24.0 1.3 65.4 61.1 22.0 23.6 25.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 37 63 100 14.0 14.2 20.7 1.7 69.9 64.4 10.7 12.3 13.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 33 67 100 25.5 25.9 23.4 1.9 72.5 66.7 21.7 23.5 25.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 34 66 100 25.6 25.8 21.7 1.8 71.6 65.7 21.9 23.6 25.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 34 66 100 25.8 26.1 23.1 1.9 72.1 66.6 22.0 23.8 25.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 39 61 100 24.4 24.5 21.9 1.6 69.1 64.3 21.2 22.8 24.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 24.5 25.7 21.9 1.6 68.3 63.9 22.4 24.0 25.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 34 66 100 25.8 25.9 22.7 1.6 69.8 63.3 22.0 23.8 25.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 42 58 100 25.9 26.3 23.7 1.7 71.4 65.9 22.9 24.4 25.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 42 58 100 26.1 26.4 22.3 1.7 70.1 65.2 22.7 24.4 26.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 37 63 100 24.9 24.9 24.0 1.6 68.1 62.6 21.8 23.3 24.7 29 Palic 37000G16 0 35 65 100 25.0 25.1 20.7 1.7 70.2 64.1 21.4 23.1 24.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 38 62 100 25.1 25.0 24.3 1.5 67.3 62.1 21.8 23.4 24.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 35 65 100 20.1 20.1 18.3 1.6 69.5 63.5 16.7 18.3 19.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 33 67 100 25.7 26.2 24.4 2.0 73.8 67.3 22.0 23.7 25.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 35 65 100 25.5 25.5 23.9 1.6 69.1 62.8 22.1 23.7 25.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 36 64 100 25.6 25.6 24.3 1.6 68.5 62.7 22.1 23.8 25.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 34 66 100 25.2 25.3 22.8 1.7 70.0 63.9 21.5 23.2 24.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 33 67 100 25.8 26.1 23.0 1.9 72.7 66.7 22.0 23.7 25.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 23.8 24.9 21.1 1.6 68.9 64.1 21.7 23.2 24.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 34 66 100 25.4 25.8 23.8 1.9 72.4 66.4 21.9 23.5 25.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 40 60 100 26.0 26.5 22.5 1.8 72.7 67.0 22.7 24.3 25.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 37 63 100 20.0 20.2 19.9 1.7 70.0 63.8 16.4 18.1 19.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 38 62 100 25.5 25.3 24.2 1.4 66.4 61.8 22.1 23.7 25.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------