***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.05.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 31.05.2021.-06.06.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 24.7 25.2 25.9 1.0 62.1 58.1 22.6 24.1 25.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 25.4 25.6 25.8 0.8 59.0 56.5 23.1 24.7 26.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 25.3 25.6 26.0 0.9 60.4 57.1 23.1 24.6 26.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 17.9 18.4 23.7 1.1 64.0 58.8 16.3 17.5 18.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 25.7 26.2 24.1 1.0 62.6 58.2 23.8 25.2 26.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 24.2 24.5 21.4 1.0 62.5 57.9 22.5 23.7 24.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 25.0 25.1 25.6 0.6 57.9 55.8 22.8 24.4 25.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 13.5 13.8 22.3 0.9 60.9 56.9 11.9 13.1 14.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 25.0 25.5 24.3 1.0 61.9 58.0 23.1 24.5 25.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 25.0 25.4 22.9 1.0 61.7 57.7 23.1 24.5 25.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 25.5 25.8 23.9 1.0 61.9 57.8 23.7 25.0 26.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 24.4 24.6 23.7 1.0 61.0 57.2 22.8 23.9 25.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 25.6 26.0 22.8 1.0 62.3 58.1 24.0 25.1 26.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 25.2 25.3 23.7 0.8 59.3 56.2 23.0 24.5 26.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 25.9 26.3 24.8 1.1 64.2 58.6 24.4 25.4 26.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 26.1 26.6 23.5 1.1 63.1 58.5 24.5 25.7 26.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 24.9 25.3 25.6 0.8 60.1 57.3 22.7 24.3 25.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 24.5 24.7 22.2 0.9 61.0 57.3 22.5 23.9 25.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 24.9 25.1 25.9 0.8 58.9 56.4 22.7 24.3 25.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 19.9 20.2 19.6 0.9 60.9 56.8 18.2 19.4 20.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 25.2 25.8 25.4 1.1 63.3 58.8 23.2 24.7 26.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 25.4 25.7 25.4 0.8 59.6 56.6 23.2 24.8 26.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 25.3 25.4 25.7 0.7 58.3 55.7 23.1 24.7 26.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 24.8 25.0 23.8 0.8 60.0 56.8 22.7 24.2 25.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 25.4 25.9 24.2 1.1 63.8 59.1 23.3 24.8 26.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 25.1 25.4 23.1 1.0 61.8 57.9 23.6 24.7 25.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 25.0 25.5 25.0 1.0 62.4 58.4 23.0 24.4 25.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 25.9 26.4 24.1 1.2 65.0 59.3 24.4 25.5 26.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 19.7 19.9 21.2 0.9 60.7 57.0 17.8 19.1 20.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 25.2 25.3 25.7 0.7 58.4 56.0 23.0 24.5 26.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------