***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.05.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.05.2021.-16.05.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 4.0 5.9 10.1 59.7 42.7 36.0 4.0 7.5 12.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 9.1 5.3 9.0 59.0 42.8 36.4 3.7 6.8 11.0 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 4.1 6.3 10.6 62.9 45.0 37.9 3.8 7.6 13.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 5.5 7.5 11.2 57.7 41.0 35.2 5.5 10.4 17.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 61 39 0 100 3.8 6.0 11.4 60.3 43.2 36.0 3.9 7.9 13.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 59 41 0 100 4.6 5.5 11.4 53.5 36.6 32.3 4.8 8.4 13.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 3.0 4.4 8.8 58.5 42.3 35.1 2.8 5.9 10.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 61 39 0 100 8.5 10.5 14.1 56.3 37.4 32.4 9.1 14.9 22.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 62 38 0 100 3.3 5.2 11.9 61.5 42.1 35.8 3.4 6.9 12.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 65 35 0 100 4.5 6.1 14.2 56.6 37.9 32.9 5.1 9.5 15.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 63 37 0 100 3.1 4.5 10.6 53.7 40.1 33.5 3.4 6.3 10.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 62 38 0 100 3.6 4.8 10.2 53.5 38.3 32.2 3.9 7.0 11.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 67 33 0 100 2.9 3.8 8.7 45.4 35.9 29.4 3.4 5.7 8.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 4.3 6.2 15.0 61.9 43.2 36.7 3.9 8.0 14.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 59 41 0 100 3.4 5.3 8.5 54.1 44.8 34.4 3.5 6.3 10.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 61 39 0 100 4.1 5.2 9.2 50.4 37.8 31.8 4.4 7.2 10.7 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 4.2 6.0 8.5 58.1 41.7 35.0 4.1 8.2 14.0 30 Palic 37000G16 66 34 0 100 5.4 6.6 14.9 55.4 34.7 31.5 6.2 11.1 17.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 11.3 6.6 9.7 61.5 44.5 37.9 4.0 8.1 14.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 60 40 0 100 4.7 5.7 15.5 59.5 37.1 33.2 4.8 9.3 15.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 3.8 5.8 11.3 63.5 44.2 37.2 3.7 7.0 11.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 5.0 8.5 10.0 66.6 47.9 38.8 4.6 9.3 15.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 3.6 5.6 10.8 63.7 45.8 37.9 3.4 6.6 11.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 59 41 0 100 4.9 6.4 13.0 57.5 39.7 34.5 5.0 9.4 15.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 4.8 7.0 10.9 59.3 43.3 36.3 4.8 8.7 14.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 64 36 0 100 3.0 3.9 9.2 50.4 36.8 30.9 3.2 6.3 10.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 4.3 5.7 10.2 57.6 41.6 35.5 4.0 7.7 13.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 3.4 4.6 9.9 53.5 40.4 33.5 3.4 6.4 10.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 62 38 0 100 6.4 7.2 15.0 56.1 34.5 31.7 6.8 12.7 20.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 4.0 5.5 9.5 61.1 43.8 37.1 3.3 6.9 12.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------