***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.05.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.05.2021.-23.05.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 19.5 17.3 14.0 81.2 55.4 45.7 8.2 14.8 23.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 6.1 13.1 14.8 94.9 60.5 49.2 5.7 9.8 15.2 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 9.5 16.5 14.0 83.2 54.7 44.8 9.2 14.6 21.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 18.8 17.0 16.2 84.6 55.6 46.8 8.5 14.7 22.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 20.0 15.4 13.7 76.1 51.1 42.8 7.9 15.0 24.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 14.2 13.6 18.1 86.3 55.2 48.4 6.9 11.6 18.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 13.2 13.8 14.9 94.2 60.7 50.2 5.6 10.0 16.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 26.3 23.6 15.3 81.3 53.9 46.4 13.8 21.6 31.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 14.9 11.3 13.6 74.7 49.9 41.6 6.3 11.4 18.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 20.0 17.6 15.3 79.3 53.2 45.1 10.3 16.3 23.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 6.1 9.5 13.5 74.5 48.3 41.6 5.5 10.2 16.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 14.8 12.1 13.2 78.5 51.4 45.0 6.8 11.7 17.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 12.9 11.1 15.3 80.2 51.6 45.9 6.3 10.6 16.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 9.4 22.2 20.4 99.8 62.4 48.7 8.6 15.4 24.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 5.5 11.7 16.4 92.4 59.7 47.5 5.0 8.9 14.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 15.8 12.8 14.8 79.0 50.8 44.4 7.4 12.5 19.3 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 4.5 11.8 15.6 100.8 63.2 51.1 4.2 7.8 12.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 18.4 17.3 17.9 87.5 56.4 46.7 9.3 14.9 21.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 15.9 16.1 14.6 93.3 59.7 48.4 6.5 11.8 19.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 17.9 17.6 18.6 91.3 57.5 49.0 9.9 15.0 21.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 7.8 14.5 13.9 79.8 52.9 43.1 7.8 13.2 20.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 6.5 13.2 15.6 98.7 62.3 50.0 6.4 10.0 14.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 15.1 15.7 15.5 96.3 60.4 48.2 7.4 12.0 18.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 9.8 18.0 17.1 86.5 55.7 44.5 9.3 15.5 23.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 7.6 14.5 17.0 83.4 54.5 45.0 7.1 12.7 20.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 12.5 11.6 14.8 84.0 54.9 48.4 5.9 10.1 15.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 9.4 17.7 16.2 83.6 55.3 45.3 8.8 15.2 23.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 13.6 13.3 16.0 87.7 57.3 47.6 6.8 11.0 16.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 25.3 25.0 19.7 91.4 58.1 47.9 12.6 20.4 30.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 15.9 15.4 14.0 88.5 57.5 46.9 7.5 12.7 19.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------