***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.05.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.05.2021.-30.05.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 2.9 7.0 15.0 84.3 58.3 48.3 2.4 5.2 9.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 10.5 11.0 15.0 90.6 60.5 48.3 3.5 7.4 13.4 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 3.7 9.0 15.0 85.5 58.4 47.3 3.6 6.8 11.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 5.4 12.6 17.0 86.7 59.1 48.0 4.9 9.3 15.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 4.4 9.7 15.5 87.9 59.5 47.5 4.1 7.3 11.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 14.3 15.2 20.0 94.8 61.2 50.5 6.3 11.1 17.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 9.6 10.4 15.6 94.0 61.8 49.5 2.9 6.6 12.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 11.5 25.9 18.5 95.5 61.8 49.3 11.3 19.0 28.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 4.2 9.9 16.5 87.9 59.4 47.8 3.7 7.2 12.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 6.1 13.3 18.9 90.1 59.6 48.3 5.6 10.0 16.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 4.9 12.4 15.1 94.1 61.9 49.0 4.3 8.4 14.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 5.6 13.1 15.5 93.0 61.2 47.7 5.2 9.4 15.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 58 42 0 100 4.0 12.0 18.1 93.1 61.0 47.1 3.8 8.0 14.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 7.9 16.6 20.0 88.2 58.7 49.2 7.6 13.1 20.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 4.4 9.8 14.2 76.3 56.1 45.0 3.8 7.8 13.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 6.0 13.5 16.6 93.0 61.4 48.3 5.8 9.9 15.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 8.9 10.1 15.4 96.0 62.1 49.8 3.0 6.4 11.5 29 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 7.1 13.9 21.0 88.9 58.2 48.1 6.8 11.3 17.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 9.3 9.8 15.0 89.9 60.3 48.7 3.5 6.9 11.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 15.5 16.8 21.2 98.3 61.7 51.5 7.8 12.7 18.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 3.8 8.0 15.3 85.5 58.6 47.4 3.6 6.3 9.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 12.6 14.6 16.4 99.9 63.7 50.4 4.4 9.0 15.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 7.9 8.2 14.8 88.2 59.7 49.6 3.6 6.2 9.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 6.8 13.1 18.4 85.7 57.7 47.5 6.8 10.8 16.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 8.9 8.6 16.9 84.3 57.8 47.3 4.1 6.9 10.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 5.2 12.5 14.9 87.7 59.6 44.5 5.2 9.4 15.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 3.3 7.4 16.5 84.7 58.2 47.9 3.0 5.6 9.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 4.9 10.3 16.0 83.5 58.2 47.2 4.5 8.1 13.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 19.3 19.7 21.4 91.9 59.5 49.9 9.9 15.7 22.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 3.3 8.3 15.1 88.7 60.1 47.8 2.9 5.9 10.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------