***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.05.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 31.05.2021.-06.06.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 9.4 21.8 17.5 99.0 63.0 47.8 9.0 15.3 23.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 61 39 0 100 7.2 16.9 13.5 85.7 57.8 44.6 7.6 13.5 21.2 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 10.0 26.9 17.8 102.7 63.9 48.2 10.2 18.1 28.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 11.1 23.9 16.7 92.9 60.2 45.8 10.7 18.1 27.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 8.4 18.6 16.7 96.1 61.2 45.3 8.9 14.2 20.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 7.9 18.1 21.2 102.2 62.9 48.4 7.7 12.9 19.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 61 39 0 100 6.2 14.9 13.2 82.8 56.8 43.5 6.5 12.0 19.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 63 37 0 100 16.3 29.3 21.0 99.4 61.4 46.4 17.9 24.3 31.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 63 37 0 100 8.2 19.1 18.2 97.3 61.3 45.6 9.1 14.6 21.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 64 36 0 100 8.5 18.6 22.0 97.9 60.8 45.8 9.5 14.6 20.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 62 38 0 100 7.0 16.8 16.1 98.8 61.7 45.5 7.5 12.5 18.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 62 38 0 100 6.7 16.2 16.5 99.0 62.0 46.3 7.3 12.0 18.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 60 40 0 100 6.3 16.3 17.5 94.7 60.8 46.0 6.5 11.9 18.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 14.6 30.3 21.4 95.4 60.3 47.2 14.5 23.5 34.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 61 39 0 100 5.8 16.2 13.7 91.4 60.9 43.6 5.8 11.5 19.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 6.1 15.7 16.8 100.7 62.8 47.1 6.2 10.9 17.1 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 9.1 19.0 11.7 77.0 54.1 41.6 8.9 16.6 27.4 29 Palic 37000G16 59 41 0 100 12.8 25.4 25.1 100.1 61.7 47.8 13.7 20.0 27.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 7.7 21.8 14.8 92.8 60.4 46.7 7.4 15.1 26.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 8.7 19.3 24.1 101.3 62.2 49.9 8.8 14.3 21.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 8.8 21.1 17.4 99.2 62.6 46.9 9.1 15.3 23.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 8.0 18.7 13.3 82.8 56.6 44.2 7.5 15.0 25.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 8.2 21.4 16.3 101.3 63.4 48.8 8.3 14.6 23.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 10.8 25.3 21.3 99.7 61.9 47.6 11.2 18.5 28.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 9.6 20.8 17.6 91.7 60.2 45.8 9.4 15.9 24.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 5.2 12.8 13.5 85.7 57.9 43.0 5.2 9.9 16.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 7.3 19.0 17.9 93.9 61.2 46.6 6.8 13.2 22.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 6.4 15.7 16.7 97.3 62.2 45.6 6.4 11.1 17.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 13.7 26.9 24.7 100.2 61.7 48.6 14.5 21.2 29.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 61 39 0 100 7.9 19.2 15.0 90.6 59.8 45.8 8.4 14.6 22.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------