***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.05.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.05.2021.-06.06.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 40.7 51.6 56.5 81.3 43.1 40.6 42.8 57.4 73.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 58.5 48.3 52.3 82.8 43.5 41.6 41.2 52.8 65.3 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 44.0 56.0 57.4 83.7 44.3 42.2 46.0 61.5 78.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 56.5 65.0 61.0 80.3 40.5 38.8 58.7 72.9 87.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 63 37 0 100 44.0 52.4 57.2 79.6 39.2 38.2 47.5 61.2 75.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 62 38 0 100 42.9 51.3 70.7 84.0 40.3 39.5 46.1 58.0 71.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 57.5 45.8 52.5 82.9 44.1 41.7 37.4 50.5 64.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 80.7 88.8 68.8 81.6 39.1 39.6 83.3 98.4 113.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 63 37 0 100 41.3 49.0 60.2 80.2 39.6 38.8 44.7 55.9 68.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 49.9 55.7 70.6 79.9 37.7 38.5 52.4 65.2 79.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 60 40 0 100 38.7 44.0 55.2 78.9 37.5 37.7 41.2 51.8 63.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 37.2 43.2 55.4 80.0 39.0 38.8 38.8 51.3 65.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 61 39 0 100 37.1 42.2 59.5 78.2 37.1 37.1 39.6 50.5 62.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 89.1 73.7 76.7 85.5 44.1 43.3 62.8 79.8 98.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 37.0 44.3 52.8 78.7 42.8 39.7 37.7 49.3 62.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 63 37 0 100 41.6 47.8 57.4 80.2 38.9 38.2 44.7 54.2 64.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 63.4 49.9 51.2 83.5 44.1 41.8 40.5 55.2 72.0 29 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 59.4 66.3 78.8 82.0 39.4 39.8 62.0 73.2 85.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 44.4 55.8 54.1 84.5 44.7 42.9 44.9 60.9 79.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 61 39 0 100 50.9 60.4 79.4 86.1 41.7 41.4 54.3 66.2 79.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 64 36 0 100 40.1 50.1 57.9 81.9 42.2 40.3 43.7 55.6 68.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 44.8 58.4 55.3 87.4 47.2 44.8 45.4 60.8 78.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 40.4 50.8 57.4 87.1 46.8 44.7 41.5 52.7 65.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 58.3 65.7 69.8 81.9 40.7 40.7 59.8 72.7 86.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 64 36 0 100 42.5 51.8 62.3 80.0 40.5 38.2 46.4 58.8 72.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 70 30 0 100 35.2 42.5 52.3 76.3 37.4 35.5 39.8 50.5 62.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 61 39 0 100 42.4 51.9 60.8 80.4 41.3 39.1 45.7 58.9 73.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 39.8 45.8 58.6 80.1 41.3 39.0 41.6 50.3 59.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 75.2 83.3 80.7 83.9 40.5 40.5 77.7 90.5 104.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 61.4 47.7 53.6 82.5 43.7 41.4 39.1 53.1 69.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------