***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.05.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.05.2015.-17.05.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 89 11 100 11.3 10.8 11.8 -0.4 42.6 43.0 10.4 11.1 11.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 85 15 100 11.6 11.2 11.8 -0.2 45.5 45.9 10.6 11.4 12.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 87 13 100 13.2 12.6 11.6 -0.4 42.0 42.6 12.2 13.0 13.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 83 17 100 8.5 7.9 9.6 -0.3 44.3 44.9 7.1 8.2 9.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 84 16 100 10.0 9.5 9.8 -0.3 43.5 44.3 9.0 9.8 10.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 8.9 8.1 7.6 -0.6 37.0 38.2 7.9 8.6 9.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 88 12 100 11.4 11.1 11.9 -0.2 46.7 47.0 10.4 11.2 12.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 82 18 100 4.0 3.2 7.5 -0.6 38.2 39.1 2.9 3.7 4.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 87 13 100 10.8 10.3 10.2 -0.4 41.8 42.5 9.9 10.7 11.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 84 16 100 10.7 10.1 8.4 -0.5 40.1 40.9 9.8 10.5 11.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 10.5 9.8 9.1 -0.5 38.3 39.2 9.6 10.3 11.0 29 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 8.7 7.9 8.1 -0.6 37.5 38.4 7.7 8.5 9.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 10.2 9.3 8.1 -0.6 36.6 38.1 9.2 9.9 10.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 11.3 10.7 10.0 -0.5 39.8 40.9 10.4 11.1 11.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 85 15 100 11.5 11.1 10.8 -0.2 45.2 45.5 10.5 11.3 12.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 11.3 10.5 8.8 -0.5 38.2 39.4 10.2 11.0 11.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 83 17 100 11.7 11.3 11.6 -0.2 46.2 46.6 10.7 11.5 12.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 9.0 8.4 7.4 -0.5 39.2 40.3 8.1 8.8 9.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 86 14 100 11.6 11.2 11.7 -0.3 44.5 45.1 10.7 11.4 12.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 5.3 4.6 5.3 -0.6 37.4 38.7 4.4 5.1 5.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 85 15 100 10.8 10.2 11.3 -0.4 41.4 41.9 9.8 10.6 11.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 86 14 100 10.9 10.6 11.6 -0.1 47.0 47.4 10.0 10.7 11.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 85 15 100 11.1 10.6 11.3 -0.4 42.5 43.3 10.2 10.9 11.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 10.8 10.1 9.6 -0.5 38.9 40.0 9.9 10.6 11.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 11.2 10.5 10.5 -0.6 39.0 39.8 10.2 10.9 11.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 10.0 9.1 7.8 -0.6 37.7 39.1 8.9 9.7 10.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 86 14 100 11.7 11.0 11.1 -0.4 42.4 42.9 10.4 11.5 12.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 83 17 100 9.7 9.2 10.1 -0.3 44.5 44.9 8.7 9.4 10.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 8.3 7.4 6.9 -0.5 37.7 39.0 7.1 7.9 8.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 88 12 100 11.5 11.1 12.0 -0.3 44.9 45.4 10.6 11.4 12.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------