***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.05.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.05.2015.-31.05.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 11.1 12.4 14.2 0.0 49.2 48.4 11.4 12.4 13.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 12.9 12.6 14.4 0.2 53.2 51.1 11.3 12.4 13.4 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 12.9 14.2 14.1 0.0 50.4 49.2 13.1 14.2 15.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 7.5 8.7 12.1 -0.1 48.1 48.0 7.7 8.9 10.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 9.7 10.8 11.9 -0.1 48.6 48.1 9.9 10.8 11.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 9.9 9.5 10.2 0.0 49.1 49.3 8.7 9.5 10.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 11.2 12.6 14.4 0.1 52.3 50.5 11.4 12.5 13.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 3.1 4.4 10.1 -0.1 48.7 48.5 3.4 4.5 5.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 10.6 11.6 12.2 -0.1 48.0 47.7 10.8 11.7 12.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 10.5 11.6 10.7 -0.1 48.6 48.4 10.7 11.7 12.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 10.3 11.4 11.5 0.0 49.6 48.9 10.5 11.4 12.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 8.6 9.6 10.9 -0.1 48.6 48.3 8.8 9.7 10.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 11.3 10.8 10.5 -0.1 47.5 47.7 10.0 10.9 11.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 11.4 12.4 12.2 -0.1 48.3 47.9 11.6 12.5 13.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 11.6 12.5 12.7 -0.1 48.3 48.5 11.7 12.6 13.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 10.8 11.8 11.2 -0.1 48.8 48.4 10.9 11.9 12.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 13.1 12.8 14.0 0.1 52.3 50.7 11.7 12.7 13.7 29 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 9.0 10.0 9.9 -0.1 48.0 48.0 9.2 10.1 11.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 12.8 12.5 14.3 0.2 53.0 50.9 11.4 12.3 13.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 5.1 6.1 8.1 -0.2 47.0 47.5 5.3 6.2 7.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 10.6 11.6 13.3 -0.1 47.5 47.2 10.9 11.8 12.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 12.3 12.1 14.0 0.2 53.1 51.2 11.0 11.9 12.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 12.4 12.1 13.9 0.1 51.4 49.8 11.0 12.0 12.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 10.7 11.7 12.0 -0.1 48.6 48.2 10.9 11.8 12.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 12.5 11.8 12.5 -0.2 46.8 47.2 11.0 12.0 13.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 10.7 10.1 10.6 -0.3 44.3 45.8 9.5 10.4 11.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 11.0 12.2 13.4 -0.1 48.4 48.2 11.2 12.3 13.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 9.7 10.6 12.4 -0.1 48.5 48.3 9.8 10.7 11.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 7.3 8.6 9.2 -0.1 48.0 48.1 7.6 8.7 9.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 11.2 12.7 14.5 0.2 52.9 50.8 11.5 12.5 13.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------