***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.05.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.06.2015.-07.06.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 13.3 13.7 15.9 0.8 63.6 59.1 12.2 13.0 13.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 40 60 100 14.3 14.2 16.2 1.0 67.2 61.8 12.2 13.2 14.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 15.0 15.5 15.9 0.8 64.7 60.2 13.7 14.7 15.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 10.1 10.3 13.7 0.5 59.1 56.8 8.7 9.7 10.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 11.9 12.0 13.5 0.5 59.8 57.3 10.8 11.6 12.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 10.8 10.9 11.7 0.4 58.9 55.9 9.9 10.6 11.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 13.6 14.1 16.2 0.9 66.1 60.9 12.4 13.3 14.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 5.5 5.6 11.5 0.3 57.1 54.9 4.5 5.2 6.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 13.0 13.1 13.9 0.6 60.9 58.0 11.9 12.7 13.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 12.9 13.0 12.2 0.5 59.6 56.9 11.9 12.6 13.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 12.6 12.6 13.0 0.4 58.8 56.6 11.5 12.3 13.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 10.8 10.8 12.4 0.3 55.6 53.9 9.9 10.5 11.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 12.2 12.1 12.0 0.2 55.4 53.4 11.2 11.9 12.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 13.5 13.8 13.9 0.6 62.3 59.0 12.4 13.2 14.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 13.8 13.9 14.2 0.5 59.0 56.8 12.8 13.5 14.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 13.0 13.0 12.8 0.4 57.8 55.5 11.9 12.7 13.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 39 61 100 14.5 14.4 15.8 0.9 66.5 61.5 12.6 13.5 14.4 29 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 11.6 11.8 11.5 0.5 60.4 57.1 10.5 11.3 12.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 40 60 100 14.1 14.1 16.1 1.0 67.5 62.3 12.3 13.2 14.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 7.3 7.3 9.7 0.4 57.7 54.6 6.5 7.1 7.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 13.0 13.2 15.0 0.6 61.3 57.9 11.9 12.7 13.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 36 64 100 13.8 13.7 15.7 0.9 67.4 62.5 12.0 12.8 13.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 13.1 13.7 15.6 0.9 66.5 61.8 11.9 12.8 13.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 12.9 13.2 13.7 0.6 62.3 58.7 11.8 12.6 13.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 13.1 13.2 14.2 0.5 59.5 56.7 12.0 12.8 13.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 11.7 11.6 12.2 0.2 53.9 51.4 10.7 11.4 12.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 13.3 13.7 15.1 0.7 61.9 58.1 12.0 13.0 13.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 11.9 12.0 14.0 0.5 59.5 57.0 10.9 11.6 12.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 10.0 10.2 10.8 0.5 59.7 56.4 8.8 9.7 10.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 13.8 14.3 16.3 1.0 66.8 61.4 12.5 13.4 14.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------