***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.05.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.05.2015.-07.06.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 12.4 12.1 13.6 -0.1 47.2 47.2 11.7 12.2 12.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 12.5 12.3 13.7 0.1 52.1 50.8 11.7 12.3 12.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 14.1 13.8 13.5 -0.1 48.2 48.0 13.3 13.9 14.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 8.1 8.6 11.4 -0.2 44.5 45.3 8.2 8.9 9.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 10.2 10.6 11.3 -0.2 44.4 45.2 10.3 10.8 11.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 9.0 9.4 9.5 -0.3 42.1 43.8 9.1 9.6 10.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 11.7 12.3 13.7 0.1 51.5 50.2 11.8 12.3 12.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 3.8 4.1 9.3 -0.3 41.0 42.9 3.9 4.4 4.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 11.1 11.5 11.7 -0.2 44.4 45.2 11.2 11.7 12.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 11.0 11.4 10.0 -0.2 42.9 44.5 11.1 11.5 12.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 10.8 11.2 10.8 -0.2 42.6 43.9 10.9 11.3 11.8 29 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 8.9 9.3 10.1 -0.3 39.9 42.0 9.1 9.5 10.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 10.3 10.6 9.8 -0.3 39.1 41.4 10.4 10.9 11.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 11.6 12.1 11.6 -0.2 43.6 45.3 11.7 12.2 12.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 12.7 12.4 12.2 -0.1 46.4 46.9 12.0 12.5 12.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 11.2 11.6 10.6 -0.3 42.0 43.4 11.3 11.8 12.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 12.8 12.6 13.4 0.0 50.8 50.0 12.0 12.5 13.0 29 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 9.4 9.8 9.2 -0.2 42.2 44.0 9.5 10.0 10.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 12.5 12.4 13.6 0.1 51.7 50.6 11.8 12.3 12.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 5.6 5.9 7.4 -0.3 40.1 42.4 5.7 6.1 6.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 11.9 11.5 12.8 -0.2 44.3 45.1 11.2 11.7 12.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 12.0 11.8 13.3 0.1 51.8 50.9 11.3 11.8 12.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 11.3 11.9 13.2 0.0 49.2 49.1 11.4 11.9 12.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 11.0 11.5 11.3 -0.2 43.8 45.2 11.1 11.6 12.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 11.3 11.7 12.0 -0.3 41.8 43.4 11.4 12.0 12.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 9.9 10.1 9.9 -0.4 37.6 39.9 10.0 10.4 10.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 12.5 12.1 12.8 -0.2 45.6 46.1 11.7 12.3 12.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 10.1 10.5 11.8 -0.1 45.7 46.2 10.2 10.6 11.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 8.0 8.4 8.6 -0.3 40.8 43.2 8.1 8.7 9.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 12.6 12.5 13.8 0.1 51.7 50.5 11.9 12.4 12.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------