***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.05.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.05.2015.-17.05.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 83 17 100 23.9 23.5 22.5 -0.1 48.9 49.1 22.2 23.5 24.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 83 17 100 24.2 24.3 23.0 0.4 56.3 55.4 22.4 23.8 25.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 83 17 100 24.2 23.8 22.6 0.0 50.0 50.0 22.4 23.8 25.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 16.8 16.1 20.1 -0.2 47.0 47.6 15.0 16.4 17.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 24.3 23.4 20.6 -0.4 44.1 45.0 22.5 23.9 25.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 82 18 100 22.8 21.6 18.0 -0.7 39.4 40.9 21.2 22.4 23.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 84 16 100 23.7 23.4 22.7 0.1 51.9 51.8 21.9 23.3 24.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 12.1 11.0 18.4 -0.7 41.1 42.5 10.4 11.7 12.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 23.8 22.9 21.6 -0.3 45.9 46.6 21.9 23.3 24.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 23.5 22.6 19.7 -0.4 43.9 44.9 21.7 23.0 24.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 23.8 22.8 20.2 -0.5 42.7 43.8 22.1 23.4 24.6 29 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 23.0 21.9 19.1 -0.7 39.7 41.2 21.4 22.6 23.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 83 17 100 24.0 22.7 19.1 -0.9 37.6 39.3 22.4 23.6 24.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 24.1 23.6 21.2 -0.1 48.9 49.1 22.3 23.6 24.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 24.2 23.7 21.8 0.0 49.7 50.0 22.4 23.7 25.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 24.6 23.5 19.8 -0.6 40.8 42.2 22.8 24.2 25.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 85 15 100 23.3 23.4 22.8 0.5 56.8 56.0 21.5 22.9 24.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 23.1 22.3 18.9 -0.4 44.6 45.4 21.5 22.7 23.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 83 17 100 23.7 23.7 23.0 0.4 55.9 55.0 22.0 23.3 24.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 18.2 17.1 16.5 -0.7 40.6 42.0 16.5 17.8 19.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 23.9 23.2 22.3 -0.2 46.6 47.2 22.1 23.5 24.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 84 16 100 24.0 24.1 22.6 0.4 56.1 55.4 22.2 23.6 24.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 24.1 23.9 22.6 0.2 52.9 52.5 22.3 23.7 25.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 23.5 22.9 20.9 -0.2 47.0 47.5 21.8 23.1 24.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 23.9 23.2 21.1 -0.3 45.8 46.5 22.2 23.5 24.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 23.4 22.1 18.3 -0.9 37.4 38.9 21.7 23.0 24.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 83 17 100 23.7 23.1 21.8 -0.2 46.8 47.4 22.0 23.3 24.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 24.1 23.5 20.8 -0.1 47.9 48.4 22.3 23.7 25.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 18.2 17.3 17.9 -0.5 43.5 44.5 16.4 17.8 19.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 83 17 100 24.0 23.8 23.0 0.2 53.6 53.1 22.2 23.5 24.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------