***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.05.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.05.2015.-24.05.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 65 35 0 100 20.8 22.0 22.4 -1.0 37.1 40.9 21.6 23.2 24.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 62 38 0 100 21.7 23.0 22.5 -0.7 40.8 43.7 22.3 23.8 25.1 30 Becej 27400G00 66 34 0 100 21.4 22.5 22.4 -1.1 36.7 40.6 22.2 23.7 25.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 67 33 0 100 13.9 15.1 20.8 -1.1 35.7 39.1 14.8 16.5 18.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 68 32 0 100 21.4 22.4 20.8 -1.2 34.4 38.3 22.3 24.0 25.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 59 41 0 100 20.4 21.4 19.1 -1.0 37.3 40.2 21.0 22.5 24.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 62 38 0 100 21.5 22.7 22.4 -0.8 39.9 43.1 22.1 23.5 24.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 66 34 0 100 10.0 10.7 19.1 -1.3 32.8 37.1 10.7 12.2 13.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 66 34 0 100 20.8 21.7 21.1 -1.3 33.6 38.0 21.7 23.3 24.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 67 33 0 100 20.9 21.8 19.8 -1.4 32.8 37.3 21.8 23.4 25.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 66 34 0 100 21.1 22.1 20.3 -1.2 34.4 38.3 21.9 23.6 25.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 64 36 0 100 20.4 21.2 20.1 -1.3 33.7 37.7 21.1 22.6 24.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 64 36 0 100 21.6 22.4 19.7 -1.2 34.7 38.4 22.3 23.8 25.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 67 33 0 100 21.3 22.0 20.4 -1.5 31.4 37.0 22.1 23.7 25.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 62 38 0 100 22.2 23.2 21.3 -1.0 37.6 40.2 22.8 24.3 25.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 63 37 0 100 21.9 22.9 20.1 -1.1 35.3 38.9 22.6 24.2 25.8 30 Nis 06700G01 60 40 0 100 21.4 22.5 22.3 -0.7 40.7 43.8 21.8 23.2 24.5 29 Palic 37000G16 67 33 0 100 20.6 21.3 19.0 -1.5 31.9 36.8 21.4 23.0 24.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 63 37 0 100 21.2 22.4 22.5 -0.8 39.8 43.0 21.8 23.3 24.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 67 33 0 100 15.9 16.5 16.9 -1.5 31.7 36.4 16.7 18.2 19.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 67 33 0 100 21.1 22.1 21.8 -1.2 34.4 38.8 21.9 23.6 25.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 61 39 0 100 21.6 22.7 22.1 -0.9 38.9 42.6 22.2 23.6 25.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 65 35 0 100 21.4 22.5 22.1 -1.1 36.6 40.6 22.2 23.7 25.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 67 33 0 100 20.8 21.5 20.5 -1.4 32.7 37.6 21.6 23.1 24.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 66 34 0 100 21.1 22.2 20.9 -1.2 35.3 39.1 21.9 23.6 25.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 21.3 21.9 19.5 -1.1 35.6 39.1 21.7 23.1 24.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 65 35 0 100 21.1 22.2 21.6 -1.1 36.6 40.4 21.9 23.4 24.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 65 35 0 100 21.9 23.0 21.1 -1.1 36.7 39.7 22.6 24.2 25.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 67 33 0 100 15.6 16.3 17.9 -1.5 31.3 36.4 16.5 18.1 19.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 62 38 0 100 21.5 22.7 22.6 -0.8 40.0 43.0 22.1 23.6 25.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------