***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.05.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.06.2015.-07.06.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 36 64 100 26.2 25.8 26.7 1.2 65.4 60.7 23.0 24.5 25.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 39 61 100 26.7 26.8 27.0 1.6 69.1 62.7 23.4 25.0 26.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 37 63 100 26.6 26.4 26.9 1.3 66.8 61.5 23.4 24.9 26.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 18.1 18.4 25.0 0.9 61.7 57.6 16.4 17.6 18.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 25.9 26.4 25.1 1.0 63.3 58.9 24.1 25.4 26.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 24.4 24.7 22.8 0.8 60.9 56.5 22.8 24.0 25.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 40 60 100 26.3 26.3 26.9 1.5 68.0 62.1 23.2 24.7 26.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 13.7 14.2 23.5 1.0 64.0 58.9 12.2 13.3 14.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 25.2 25.8 25.5 1.1 63.8 59.3 23.4 24.7 26.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 25.1 25.8 24.2 1.1 64.6 59.6 23.3 24.6 25.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 25.7 26.2 24.6 1.0 63.9 59.0 24.0 25.3 26.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 24.5 25.0 24.4 1.0 62.8 58.0 23.0 24.2 25.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 25.8 26.1 23.8 0.8 60.8 56.5 24.3 25.4 26.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 39 61 100 26.4 26.2 25.2 1.3 66.8 61.5 23.2 24.7 26.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 26.0 26.2 25.2 0.7 59.7 55.9 24.5 25.6 26.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 26.4 26.7 24.3 0.9 62.0 57.3 24.8 25.9 27.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 25.1 26.4 26.7 1.5 69.0 62.7 23.0 24.6 26.1 29 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 24.6 25.3 23.6 1.2 65.7 60.3 22.8 24.1 25.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 37 63 100 26.3 26.4 27.1 1.6 69.5 63.0 23.0 24.5 26.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 20.1 20.7 21.4 1.1 64.3 59.0 18.4 19.7 20.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 25.4 26.0 26.2 1.1 63.8 59.5 23.4 24.9 26.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 25.7 26.9 26.7 1.6 69.7 63.3 23.5 25.1 26.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 37 63 100 26.6 26.6 26.8 1.5 68.8 62.7 23.4 24.9 26.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 40 60 100 25.9 25.8 25.2 1.3 66.2 60.9 23.0 24.4 25.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 25.5 25.9 25.1 0.9 62.5 58.8 23.6 24.9 26.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 25.3 25.5 23.7 0.7 60.2 55.9 23.9 24.9 25.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 25.3 25.9 25.8 1.1 64.3 60.0 23.3 24.7 26.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 26.1 26.3 25.1 0.8 60.9 56.7 24.5 25.6 26.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 19.8 20.5 22.6 1.2 65.7 60.3 18.0 19.3 20.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 36 64 100 26.5 26.5 27.1 1.5 68.5 62.5 23.3 24.8 26.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------