***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.05.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.05.2015.-17.05.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 69 31 0 100 3.2 5.5 9.9 58.3 41.9 30.5 3.8 7.4 12.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 3.7 5.8 9.2 59.7 45.4 35.4 3.7 6.8 11.0 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 4.3 5.6 10.1 56.4 41.2 33.4 3.9 7.9 13.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 6.0 8.0 11.9 59.6 42.2 38.0 5.6 10.5 17.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 60 40 0 100 3.9 5.4 11.7 58.1 39.9 35.2 3.9 7.9 14.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 10.1 5.3 13.2 60.6 38.8 36.3 4.2 7.6 12.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 63 37 0 100 2.9 5.5 9.7 63.3 46.8 36.3 2.9 6.2 11.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 66 34 0 100 8.0 8.8 11.7 49.0 31.7 28.9 9.2 15.4 23.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 3.8 5.5 12.9 63.3 44.4 38.0 3.3 6.9 12.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 60 40 0 100 5.2 6.5 13.5 56.2 38.0 33.3 5.3 10.0 16.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 61 39 0 100 3.7 4.7 10.7 55.6 38.3 34.3 3.9 7.2 11.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 65 35 0 100 3.9 4.1 9.3 47.4 31.4 28.7 4.4 7.6 11.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 7.5 4.2 12.5 62.3 40.1 37.5 3.2 5.8 9.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 64 36 0 100 4.8 7.4 12.9 62.1 41.6 35.1 5.2 10.0 16.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 8.4 5.6 11.8 62.7 45.2 40.1 3.7 6.5 10.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 10.2 6.0 11.9 62.2 41.4 38.5 4.4 8.0 12.6 30 Nis 06700G01 67 33 0 100 3.0 5.1 8.5 57.3 42.5 33.0 3.4 7.0 12.7 30 Palic 37000G16 67 33 0 100 5.9 8.0 14.3 56.0 37.1 32.7 6.9 12.2 19.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 4.4 6.4 9.2 57.7 43.9 35.0 4.0 8.0 13.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 66 34 0 100 5.8 6.4 13.8 52.3 32.3 30.0 6.6 11.7 18.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 3.4 4.3 10.5 54.9 39.5 33.1 3.2 6.5 11.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 66 34 0 100 4.1 6.1 8.6 54.5 40.0 31.0 4.4 8.9 15.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 3.8 5.3 10.0 58.2 42.5 34.7 3.6 7.1 12.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 62 38 0 100 5.6 7.8 13.0 59.4 39.9 34.7 6.1 10.7 16.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 4.5 6.0 12.0 59.2 40.4 34.9 4.5 8.4 13.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 64 36 0 100 3.2 3.8 11.3 57.0 36.0 33.1 3.3 6.9 12.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 63 37 0 100 3.5 5.8 12.0 63.5 43.7 34.7 3.6 7.5 13.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 8.2 4.9 11.5 61.1 43.2 39.1 3.4 6.2 10.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 64 36 0 100 7.2 9.3 14.5 57.1 37.2 33.3 8.0 13.8 21.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 3.9 6.3 9.7 59.8 44.7 34.3 3.8 7.6 13.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------