***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.05.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.05.2015.-24.05.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 19.2 28.2 17.3 128.9 72.5 58.4 8.8 15.2 23.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 6.8 18.0 17.4 120.8 69.8 53.2 6.7 10.9 16.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 17.6 23.9 16.8 121.7 70.5 56.7 9.2 14.6 21.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 17.1 26.3 22.6 133.7 73.8 62.1 8.1 13.9 21.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 40 60 100 26.4 30.0 21.4 133.9 73.8 61.9 8.1 14.8 23.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 39 61 100 20.1 21.9 29.2 130.7 72.8 61.4 6.4 11.5 18.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 6.5 18.4 17.9 123.2 70.6 54.1 6.3 10.5 16.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 23.7 35.0 22.0 130.9 72.9 59.5 11.2 19.2 29.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 37 63 100 20.0 23.2 20.7 139.4 75.2 62.7 6.2 11.0 17.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 19.1 27.6 23.0 129.0 72.3 59.2 9.7 15.7 23.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 12.1 19.3 18.6 132.4 73.4 59.3 4.9 9.2 15.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 39 61 100 19.0 22.2 18.0 138.7 75.0 60.9 6.5 11.0 17.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 12.3 19.4 22.9 136.0 74.4 61.2 5.6 9.8 15.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 18.6 27.3 21.8 127.1 71.9 57.3 8.5 14.7 23.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 5.1 17.0 21.5 129.0 72.7 56.9 4.7 8.7 14.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 13.5 21.6 21.4 139.0 75.1 60.8 6.1 10.7 16.7 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 5.8 15.8 16.9 121.2 70.0 52.6 5.9 9.5 14.2 29 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 15.8 22.0 25.9 124.5 71.3 58.4 7.9 12.9 19.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 8.2 22.5 17.2 119.4 69.5 53.7 7.8 13.3 20.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 16.0 21.8 27.8 123.6 70.7 58.8 9.0 13.7 19.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 36 64 100 21.7 24.3 17.8 135.6 74.3 60.4 7.1 12.3 19.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 7.3 16.4 16.8 124.8 71.1 53.5 7.4 10.8 14.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 14.0 18.6 17.7 121.0 70.2 55.1 7.0 11.4 16.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 18.6 25.7 21.5 122.6 70.8 58.2 8.8 14.8 22.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 15.8 23.5 22.3 128.5 72.3 60.5 6.9 12.3 19.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 36 64 100 15.7 18.9 20.1 145.3 76.7 63.4 4.8 8.6 13.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 18.8 27.1 21.2 127.9 72.1 59.2 9.0 14.9 23.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 14.1 20.4 21.7 130.3 73.1 58.9 6.9 11.3 17.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 22.9 33.5 26.9 129.8 72.7 59.7 11.4 18.7 28.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 16.3 21.4 17.5 121.6 70.1 54.3 8.4 13.2 19.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------