***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.05.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.06.2015.-07.06.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 9.4 25.2 12.5 99.2 63.8 46.9 9.4 16.9 26.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 8.1 20.5 13.2 97.9 64.0 47.3 7.9 13.8 21.7 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 10.2 24.7 11.8 88.1 59.6 45.3 10.4 18.6 29.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 9.2 28.6 15.4 114.1 68.5 53.8 7.9 15.8 26.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 8.5 20.4 14.0 105.5 65.6 51.2 8.8 14.0 20.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 8.3 21.6 21.8 114.1 68.0 54.4 7.9 13.3 20.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 7.1 19.3 13.4 100.3 64.8 48.4 7.0 12.5 19.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 28.1 30.7 15.3 100.4 63.2 50.7 16.9 24.0 32.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 9.9 21.5 13.3 96.6 62.6 47.6 10.2 16.0 23.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 9.4 19.5 15.9 95.7 61.5 48.2 9.4 14.8 21.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 60 40 0 100 8.1 18.6 11.9 97.7 62.9 49.3 8.6 13.6 19.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 16.3 19.1 11.6 103.5 65.1 51.7 8.1 13.1 19.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 6.9 21.4 15.7 116.7 69.3 53.5 6.6 11.9 19.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 14.8 30.0 14.9 89.1 60.0 46.1 14.8 23.7 34.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 6.2 22.7 14.3 116.9 69.8 52.0 5.6 11.3 19.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 6.1 17.1 13.3 106.0 65.9 51.8 6.0 10.7 17.1 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 9.2 25.5 13.0 98.4 64.4 45.8 8.9 16.5 26.6 29 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 15.6 27.1 18.6 97.8 61.9 49.9 15.9 22.1 29.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 8.3 22.4 12.5 92.5 62.0 45.1 7.6 14.9 25.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 18.7 22.3 20.1 105.4 65.0 53.3 9.3 15.3 22.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 8.9 21.4 11.7 98.4 63.3 47.4 8.9 15.1 23.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 7.9 23.1 13.0 102.0 65.0 45.6 7.5 14.3 23.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 8.4 18.3 11.5 82.9 58.6 42.6 8.1 14.3 22.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 14.8 27.1 15.1 89.3 59.5 47.0 15.2 22.4 30.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 10.0 26.1 16.6 109.2 67.0 50.9 9.8 16.7 25.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 13.6 18.4 13.1 112.3 68.1 54.5 4.8 9.8 17.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 8.0 24.3 16.1 105.7 66.0 49.3 7.6 14.6 24.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 7.1 18.6 14.4 111.1 67.9 52.3 6.9 11.6 17.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 26.2 29.2 19.0 102.4 63.8 52.2 14.3 21.7 30.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 9.0 22.2 13.1 96.5 63.5 47.9 8.7 15.1 23.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------