***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.05.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.05.2015.-07.06.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 70.3 69.1 55.6 99.1 57.5 48.7 44.9 61.2 79.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 41.4 58.2 54.9 96.6 55.8 49.2 41.8 53.8 67.0 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 46.2 65.8 54.7 93.0 53.0 46.3 46.9 62.8 80.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 80.5 83.9 69.1 106.2 61.6 51.9 59.0 73.3 88.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 69.2 70.0 66.4 102.2 58.8 50.0 47.9 61.9 77.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 65.7 66.6 88.7 103.5 59.1 53.5 47.9 59.7 72.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 57.2 55.7 55.9 97.7 56.7 50.3 36.7 50.0 65.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 84.6 100.4 69.1 92.3 49.7 45.3 86.0 100.7 115.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 46.7 64.8 66.5 102.0 58.7 49.7 47.7 58.7 70.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 52.8 69.4 73.5 94.0 51.6 45.4 54.6 68.0 82.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 41.6 56.3 57.7 96.3 54.0 47.3 42.6 53.5 65.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 60.8 56.4 54.9 94.3 52.1 47.4 43.9 54.9 66.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 58.3 59.6 70.7 104.7 60.2 53.7 42.0 52.7 64.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 91.5 84.7 69.2 94.1 51.9 46.5 65.8 82.4 100.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 38.4 60.5 64.0 105.7 61.5 52.2 38.9 51.1 64.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 59.8 60.7 64.7 103.4 59.4 52.2 44.4 54.6 65.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 62.9 60.1 52.7 96.5 55.9 49.4 39.8 54.5 71.0 29 Palic 37000G16 61 39 0 100 61.3 76.2 82.6 93.3 50.8 45.1 64.4 75.7 87.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 43.9 64.5 53.8 94.5 54.2 47.7 44.3 60.3 78.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 55.8 69.7 87.0 94.5 51.1 46.4 57.2 68.8 81.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 42.8 61.2 57.2 99.2 57.2 47.9 43.7 55.6 68.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 69.0 66.1 52.5 96.8 55.5 48.3 45.4 60.8 78.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 41.3 55.3 54.5 92.0 52.0 45.9 42.4 54.0 66.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 62.4 76.8 69.8 92.5 51.0 45.6 64.8 76.2 88.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 66.1 68.0 70.9 103.4 59.8 50.6 46.9 59.6 73.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 57.6 57.8 60.1 102.9 58.8 53.1 40.8 51.8 63.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 67.6 69.1 67.5 101.7 58.9 50.6 46.5 60.7 76.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 55.9 57.3 65.6 104.2 60.5 51.7 42.2 51.3 60.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 75.7 93.2 84.2 95.7 52.5 46.8 78.2 91.4 105.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 63.4 60.1 55.4 95.8 55.2 48.6 40.4 55.0 71.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------