***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.05.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.05.2020.-17.05.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 11.5 11.7 12.8 0.8 62.1 59.5 10.4 11.1 11.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 11.7 11.3 11.8 -0.1 48.5 49.4 10.6 11.4 12.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 13.3 13.6 12.9 0.7 61.7 59.3 12.2 13.0 13.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 8.6 9.2 10.2 0.8 65.6 61.2 7.1 8.2 9.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 31 69 100 10.7 10.6 11.3 1.0 68.8 63.9 9.0 9.8 10.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 23 77 100 9.6 10.2 9.3 1.9 83.6 76.3 7.9 8.6 9.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 11.6 11.2 11.8 -0.1 49.1 49.7 10.4 11.2 12.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 25 75 100 4.8 5.0 8.7 1.3 75.7 70.0 2.9 3.7 4.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 34 66 100 11.5 11.3 11.1 0.8 64.8 61.2 9.9 10.7 11.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 29 71 100 11.3 11.4 9.6 1.2 72.4 67.0 9.8 10.5 11.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 28 72 100 11.2 11.2 10.8 1.1 70.5 65.8 9.6 10.3 11.0 29 Krusevac 38200G21 0 26 74 100 9.5 9.7 10.0 1.5 76.5 70.7 7.7 8.5 9.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 21 79 100 10.9 11.2 10.2 1.5 78.5 72.3 9.2 9.9 10.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 11.4 11.5 10.5 0.6 61.5 59.5 10.4 11.1 11.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 11.6 11.9 11.9 0.8 64.5 61.2 10.5 11.3 12.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 28 72 100 12.0 12.3 10.7 1.4 76.3 70.0 10.2 11.0 11.7 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 10.5 11.2 11.2 -0.4 43.5 45.4 10.7 11.5 12.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 29 71 100 9.7 9.8 9.1 1.3 74.1 68.2 8.1 8.8 9.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 11.7 11.4 11.9 0.1 50.9 51.3 10.7 11.4 12.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 22 78 100 6.0 6.5 7.6 1.7 81.3 74.4 4.4 5.1 5.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 36 64 100 11.5 11.3 12.3 0.9 65.5 61.7 9.8 10.6 11.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 9.8 10.6 11.5 -0.2 47.1 48.3 10.0 10.7 11.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 11.2 11.1 12.0 0.2 53.6 53.6 10.2 10.9 11.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 39 61 100 11.3 11.2 10.8 0.8 64.9 61.6 9.9 10.6 11.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 11.2 11.5 12.0 0.8 63.0 60.0 10.2 10.9 11.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 24 76 100 10.7 11.3 9.7 1.9 82.6 74.8 8.9 9.7 10.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 12.0 12.3 12.5 0.8 62.9 59.9 10.4 11.5 12.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 38 62 100 10.2 10.3 11.0 1.0 69.3 64.4 8.7 9.4 10.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 29 71 100 9.0 9.1 8.2 1.2 73.3 68.1 7.1 7.9 8.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 11.7 11.5 12.3 0.2 53.2 53.0 10.6 11.4 12.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------