***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.05.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.05.2020.-24.05.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 12.7 12.4 12.9 0.1 51.2 50.2 11.4 12.3 13.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 11.1 12.1 12.5 -0.1 49.1 48.3 11.3 12.1 12.9 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 12.6 13.8 13.0 0.1 52.2 50.6 12.7 13.7 14.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 7.1 8.6 10.1 0.0 49.2 48.2 7.4 8.6 9.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 9.9 11.0 10.9 0.2 53.1 51.1 10.1 10.8 11.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 9.9 10.3 9.0 0.9 66.8 60.8 8.9 9.6 10.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 11.0 12.2 12.5 -0.1 49.0 48.3 11.3 12.2 13.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 34 66 100 5.4 5.1 8.9 0.8 65.1 59.8 3.3 4.3 5.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 10.8 11.9 11.2 0.3 56.8 53.9 10.9 11.7 12.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 10.6 12.0 9.7 0.6 62.7 58.0 10.7 11.4 12.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 10.5 11.7 10.7 0.5 59.5 55.8 10.6 11.3 12.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 8.5 10.0 9.8 0.7 63.8 59.0 8.6 9.4 10.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 11.1 11.4 9.7 0.7 63.9 59.1 10.2 10.8 11.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 11.2 12.6 10.9 0.4 57.7 54.5 11.4 12.2 13.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 11.6 12.5 11.8 0.0 49.7 49.0 11.7 12.5 13.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 12.1 12.2 10.2 0.5 59.3 55.3 10.9 11.8 12.6 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 11.4 12.3 12.1 -0.2 47.4 47.1 11.6 12.4 13.2 29 Palic 37000G16 0 35 65 100 10.8 10.6 9.0 0.7 64.4 59.4 9.3 10.0 10.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 11.2 12.3 12.6 0.0 49.7 48.7 11.4 12.3 13.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 36 64 100 6.9 6.8 7.2 0.9 67.1 61.6 5.4 6.1 6.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 10.7 11.8 12.3 0.2 52.9 51.3 10.9 11.7 12.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 10.7 11.6 12.2 -0.1 48.9 48.0 10.9 11.7 12.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 10.9 11.9 12.5 0.1 51.3 49.9 11.1 11.9 12.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 10.7 12.0 10.9 0.5 59.6 55.7 10.8 11.6 12.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 11.1 12.1 11.7 0.0 50.0 49.2 11.3 12.1 12.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 10.6 10.9 9.2 0.8 65.1 60.0 9.6 10.3 11.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 11.2 12.4 12.3 0.0 50.4 49.4 11.3 12.4 13.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 9.8 10.7 10.7 0.1 51.1 49.6 9.9 10.7 11.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 34 66 100 9.6 9.4 8.4 0.8 66.2 60.8 7.4 8.5 9.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 11.3 12.5 12.8 0.0 50.5 49.3 11.5 12.4 13.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------