***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.05.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.06.2020.-07.06.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 12.0 13.2 15.2 0.2 54.0 52.1 12.2 13.0 13.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 11.9 13.2 14.9 0.0 49.9 49.6 12.2 13.2 14.1 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 13.5 14.9 15.3 0.2 54.1 52.4 13.7 14.7 15.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 8.5 10.0 12.7 0.2 54.4 52.8 8.7 9.7 10.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 10.6 11.8 12.7 0.2 54.0 52.9 10.8 11.6 12.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 10.8 11.0 11.0 0.6 62.1 57.9 9.9 10.6 11.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 12.1 13.3 14.9 0.1 50.9 50.2 12.4 13.3 14.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 5.6 5.5 10.6 0.3 56.1 54.5 4.5 5.2 6.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 11.8 12.8 12.9 0.2 54.2 53.3 11.9 12.7 13.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 11.8 12.8 11.3 0.3 55.9 54.6 11.9 12.6 13.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 11.4 12.5 12.2 0.2 54.7 53.4 11.5 12.3 13.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 10.8 10.8 11.4 0.3 55.7 54.2 9.9 10.5 11.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 12.2 12.2 10.9 0.3 56.4 54.8 11.2 11.9 12.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 13.6 13.4 12.8 0.2 53.4 52.8 12.4 13.2 14.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 12.6 13.7 14.0 0.3 54.9 52.6 12.8 13.5 14.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 13.0 12.9 11.7 0.3 56.2 54.4 11.9 12.7 13.4 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 12.3 13.4 14.6 -0.1 49.0 49.2 12.6 13.5 14.4 29 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 11.6 11.6 10.6 0.4 57.6 56.2 10.5 11.3 12.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 12.2 13.2 14.9 0.0 50.2 49.9 12.3 13.2 14.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 7.3 7.4 8.4 0.4 57.9 56.3 6.5 7.1 7.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 11.7 12.8 14.3 0.2 54.1 52.9 11.9 12.7 13.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 11.8 12.8 14.5 0.0 49.8 50.0 12.0 12.8 13.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 11.7 12.9 14.8 0.1 51.0 50.6 11.9 12.8 13.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 13.0 12.9 12.7 0.3 56.3 54.9 11.8 12.6 13.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 11.8 12.9 13.6 0.2 52.9 51.5 12.0 12.8 13.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 11.7 11.7 10.7 0.4 58.0 55.6 10.7 11.4 12.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 11.7 13.2 14.5 0.2 53.9 51.9 12.0 13.0 13.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 10.7 11.9 13.1 0.3 56.0 53.7 10.9 11.6 12.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 10.0 10.0 9.9 0.3 56.8 55.5 8.8 9.7 10.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 12.3 13.5 15.1 0.1 51.7 50.6 12.5 13.4 14.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------